Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2094.25 | 2085.00 |
| …would target | 2100.00 | 2090.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2085.50 | 2076.25 |
| …would target | 2079.50 | 2070.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… On the other foot.
Friday’s impatient sellers had it coming.
The bullish scenario didn’t just require probing under Friday’s low. That was done overnight, touching this morning’s 2077.00 bias-down target. It still needed to be experienced intraday.
Even then, the open’s blip-down had reacted up so quickly that a re-retest was needed. And quickly, since it needed to be isolated to the opening 15 minutes of volatility.
It was.
Soon the 2082.00 bias-down signal was being probed on the way to filling the gap(s) back to Friday’s close at 2086.00-2087.25. Reacting down held above the 2082.00 bias-down signal long enough to avoid triggering it.
And that has since extended higher.
An offsetting test of the 2093.00 bias-up signal is in-play. Fresh post-open highs and positive territory are being probed to 2089.25 — after 10:15, which makes 2093.00 likely to become “unfinished business above” if not met this morning.
Having tested the 2077.00 bias-down target so near the open, an offsetting test of the 2098.75 bias-up target wouldn’t be surprising. It wouldn’t be in-play officially. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under 2082.00 would delay any unfinished business above for a new session low.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Overnight ranging in negative territory is persisting into the open. The 2082.00 bias-down signal’s resistance is still holding tests, so at least a brief fresh low remains likely, regardless of its resolution.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Bearish is bullish, and vice-versa.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s 15-point gap down to 2090.00 didn’t extend down immediately, but eventually it extended down a lot. The mid-morning bounce to 2094.00 was reversed to the afternoon’s 2079.50 low. Too late for counter-trending to gain traction, the final hour bounced to 2088.50, fulfilling the corrective bounce target.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped down to 2081.00. That was extended gradually overnight to probe under Friday’s low down to 2077.00 just ahead of Europe’s opens. It’s support, being is this morning’s bias-down target. Recovering to fresh overnight highs that attacked 2085.00 didn’t prevent reacting down again to 2078.00. But that’s now being retraced to 2083.00.
If, then…
Last night’s path is tracking the template we discussed during Saturday Review as being the most likely for a bullish resolution. Of course, until the open it’s still somewhat similar to the bearish template. First, reacting down Sunday night validated that Friday’s late bounce was only a correction. Also, probing Friday’s low has been defended by a bounce, and its fresh high proves it was not arbitrary. But the bullish template shouldn’t isolate the support test to overnight, which the current bounce is attempting. Not retesting Friday’s low post-open before bouncing and delaying fresh lows intraday would likely only contribute to an afternoon bearish scenario.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2086.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2082.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2080.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Globex chaRTroom link
The tragedy in Orlando suggests tonight’s 6:00PM et Globex open will be anxious. Europe’s opens may contain the most substantial reaction to pro-Brexit sentiment surging in the polls. Not much longer after that, soon after the U.S. open, we’ll see whether the bearish sentiment has been expended, or if it attracts new sponsorship.