Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review’s recording (for 6/11/16) …
Last week started obviously, quickly producing a rally as was expected. Trying to extend that rally inappropriately led to its expected reversal. And the character of its reversal suggests that a turning point may be here. Is topping process yet complete? We discuss this and more during this weekend’s Saturday Review.
GDX and GDXJ stock charts are reviewed toward the session’s end.
06/11/2016 09:29:15 sm: check check
06/11/2016 09:32:07 Mark Glezer: gm
06/11/2016 09:56:36 Bill G: Rod, are you alright, you seem distracted? Maybe it’s me
06/11/2016 09:57:06 Bill G: usually the case
06/11/2016 10:01:44 sm: What potential do you think still exists for the market to make another challenge on the all-time highs?
06/11/2016 10:06:00 sm: December’s high
06/11/2016 10:06:42 sm: ok
06/11/2016 10:07:09 sm: Yeah, either way we completed the requried test of the highs.
06/11/2016 10:08:01 Bill G: Do you expect lower before attacking the May 2015 high?
06/11/2016 10:09:04 Bill G: If it ever happens
06/11/2016 10:11:04 sm: The decline in Aug was considered an incomplete satisfaction of the 2015 topping pattern…if a decline commences from the current area, would you consider that to be a part of that effort?
06/11/2016 10:11:34 sm: Or an altogether new decline, not necessarily tied to 2015?
06/11/2016 10:19:13 sm: Sorry for taking the conversation back to the big picture (takes me a few minutes to digest your comments)…Since an decline from current levels would be a separate effort (different sponsorhip) from that which orignated in 2015, but we have now an even larger context of distribution which includes the past eight month PLUS that which occured in 2015, would you anticipate even lower levels than would have been seen if the decline had been more successful initally and had actually made its way into the 1700s that were possible at that time?
06/11/2016 10:21:17 sm: :)
06/11/2016 10:21:41 Josey: will the brix strenghten gold?
06/11/2016 10:27:57 sm: thx
06/11/2016 10:28:19 Josey: if it goes through.
06/11/2016 10:32:11 Josey: TY
06/11/2016 10:32:23 Mark Glezer: thx
Saturday Review Link
Did Friday’s initial capitulation fulfill Tuesday and Wednesday’s topping, and Thursday’s warning shot? Or, is Friday’s drop telling everyone the trend is reversing down? We’ll discuss that, and more, less than two hours from now.
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2103.00 | 2093.00 |
| …would target | 2108.75 | 2098.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2092.00 | 2082.00 |
| …would target | 2087.00 | 2077.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday morning’s post-open bounce fulfilled its intention of lulling market participants into complacency before a capitulative afternoon drop. But a capitulation isn’t very capitulative if it’s not maintained. The last half-hour’s recovery back into the noon hour’s range all but erased that capitulation’s effects
That said, the late bounce was probably only a temporary corrective bounce. Its 2088.25 peak was calculated from a correction of the afternoon’s 10-point drop to 2079.50. Holding it to the tick — twice, recovering it after a 3-point interim dip — is the best confirmation available until the next open.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Join us at 9:30am ET for the Saturday Review when we look at the bigger picture and your stock chart requests in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Kicked when it’s down.
Afternoon slide worsens the overnight drop.
Having anticipated the downside to unfold quickly if it unfolded at all, lower and lower lows through the afternoon help to confirm the trend is now down. Downlegs have been capitulative, but a late surge could still retrace enough ground to limit the afternoon’s damage.
Now probing 2083.50 resistance just before the position-squaring window opens, extending higher without delay is necessary to avoid new session lows. And new session lows signaled under 2081.75 would be likely to slide through the close.
Regardless, today’;s low can’t serve as a durable bottom, so be aware that any bounce is a temporary correction.