Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Pegged.
Now the upside is being weighed down.
Rallying this morning was already doomed to failure for being premature, since yesterday’s rally had gained no traction for its effort. Attacking 2119.00 did retrace entirely back down to yesterday’s 2111.25 futures close. But no lower.
Meanwhile, this morning’s no-bias signal was not invalidated. The offsetting test of its 2106.50 bias-down signal has become “unfinished business below.” This is extra ballast, on a leaking helium balloon.
Bouncing since exiting the bias environment has tested this afternoon’s 2117.50 bias-up signal. It wasn’t triggered, but it could be probed and still be vulnerable to reversing down this afternoon… like this morning.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jun 9, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday morning’s Jobless Claims is high-profile, but has lost its track record for influencing price action. The noon hour ends with the 30-year auction, following a substantial rally to fresh highs. Price action tends to respond to the auction’s results.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2118.75 | 2117.50 |
| …would target | 2123.75 | 2122.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2113.00 | 2111.75 |
| …would target | 2108.00 | 2106.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Thin air up here.
Open’s surge finds more resistance at prior high.
The open’s surge all but confirmed that the two hours of pre-open consolidation were designed to conserve energy for trying to resume the rally. The minimum objective of retesting yesterday’s 2118.00 high was fulfilled, to within 1 tick of its room for noise up to 2119.00.
Then a sharp reaction down to 2112.00 all but confirmed the high’s retest was intended to seal a top. The 2114.75 bias-up signal’s test ultimately held after invoking the grace period, but it’s being retested now. Back above 2116.25 could probe fresh highs, even testing this morning’s 2120.25 bias-up target.
Resuming the rally today is no more likely than it was yesterday — for the same reasons, and more. Meanwhile, attempts to extend the rally are no less likely either, as topping forms. Wreversal Wednesday’s template only requires that the afternoon makes obvious its rejection of the morning’s trending.
Closing today above 2119.00 would be credible for extending the rally, regardless of the topping potential. And probably steeply, needing to become detached quickly from that topping potential.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Wreversal Wednesday? Recovering from the overnight low’s touch of this morning’s 2106.50 bias-down signal has produced a test of this morning’s 2114.75 bias-up signal. It’s all still noise around yesterday’s close, a test of 2110.75. Probing even higher post-open remains possible, while still not being assured of triggering bias-up. And triggering bias-up would still be vulnerable to reacting down — especially since the prior session’s rally again failed to gain traction.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.