Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Stretching the rubber band more.
Gap up extends to fresh highs.
The overnight pullback from its 2617.00 high touched 2607.00. Already recovering to open at 2615.00, the pre-open recovery extended higher to touch 2624.00. Double topping there never exploited the room for noise up to 2626.00, and reversed back down to touch the 2613.25 bias-up signal.
This is a bias-up environment, so the 2613.25 bias-up signal should define the window’s lower-end. Probing under it could start to gain traction regardless of the remaining potential upside.
Back above 2617.75 would signal the rally had resumed, at least to retest the highs, presumably targeting 2626.00
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Trepidation.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday finally probed prior highs, and finally tested the rally’s 2606.00 next objective. A 20-point overnight rally to 2600.25 had been retraced back down to 2580.25 before the open. But it repeated intraday to attack 2614.00. Another 20-point dip to 2594.00 was recovered to within 2 points of 2614.00, before reacting back down to settle within 3 ticks of 2606.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy ranging tried breaking lower ever so slightly to touch 2602.50. It was enough of a stretch for the rubber band to snap back up and eventually probe fresh highs up to 2617.00. No improvement into or out of Europe’s opens didn’t help the rally effort, and price has since dipped back down to 2607.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Essentially still overlapping 2606.00 during Tuesday’s final minutes didn’t allow closing above it to put into play the rally’s next higher objective at 2656.00. And now room for noise up to 2626.00 could still be tested today without yet putting into play the next higher target. Meanwhile, having met 2656.00, the pattern’s vulnerability to a collapse is at its greatest. Not yet reversing down by this afternoon would start replacing that vulnerability with a growing likelihood of extending to 2656.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2611.25 would be likely to trigger the 2608.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2603.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2613.00 | 2613.25 |
| …would target | 2620.50 | 2620.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2603.25 | 2603.50 |
| …would target | 2595.00 | 2595.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Prior highs were finally probed on Tuesday. Not only by the unimpressive 3-tick fresh high at 2600.25 overnight. And not just its impressive intraday retest after having been retraced back down to 2580.25 before Tuesday’s open. Prior highs were probed intraday up to almost 2614.00. And another 20-point dip to 2594.00 was recovered almost entirely to within 2 points of 2614.00.
The rally’s 2606.00 calculable objective is met. Still overlapping it during the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window negates any predictive value from closing above it. Rather than requiring a test of its room for noise up to 2626.00 or putting into play 2656.00, there only remains room for noise up to 2626.00.
Meanwhile, having met 2606.00, the pattern’s vulnerability to a collapse is at its greatest. And already starting to trend down overnight would be valid. Not yet reversing down by Wednesday afternoon would start making the rally’s next higher objective at 2656.00 likelier.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s recovery from Sunday night’s fresh pullback lows had bought a little time to delay resuming Wednesday’s surge. But Monday night’s lower lows didn’t help, and gapping down to 1.1475 support failed to recover positive territory before extending down sharply intraday to test 1.1440. Now a buy signal can be triggered by closing back above 1.1500.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Greeting Tuesday’s session in the ongoing multi-session narrow range tried breaking higher Tuesday morning attacking 1295.00, only to snap back down to the range’s 1286.50 lower-end, still above te 1283.00 sell signal.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The narrow multi-session range rejected Tuesday’s gap down by blipping-up to 15.75, only to return to the open’s gap down at 15.58 and maintain the ongoing range.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight strength stopped short of touching the 146-04 buy signal before dipping into negative territory Tuesday morning and testing the range’s 145-08 support.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The pullback from last week’s 53.30 high made no new low as Tuesday bounced back to at least 53.15, still within the range and without signaling a new leg.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing higher overnight to 3.72 was retraced Tuesday morning to 3.45, when a second consecutive higher close had been needed to confirm momentum had reversed up durably.