Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s 2614.75 gap up was just above Tuesday’s high and quickly extended another 9 points. Price only ranged choppily sideways into the afternoon’s bias environment, which triggered noN-bias. 
Not a lot of upside sponsorship, but no meaningful downside sponsorship. Nothing to prevent fresh highs from neutralizing the afternoon’s 2626.75 bias-up target to within 3 ticks.
That fresh high behaved as if it were fulfilling buying pressure, as the last 60-90 minutes trended back down to 2615.25 into the cash session close. Futures extended down to 2612.50.
Futures settled 1-2 points back under Tuesday’s high. Dipping that deeply any earlier wouldn’t have confirmed Tuesday’s breakout session, which now requires an eventual third higher close — an eventual third higher close that would presumably be above 2626.00, and put into play the rally’s next higher objective at 2656.00.
None of which requires extending the rally without delay. Touching 2626.00 without closing above it reflects some weakness in the breakout’s sponsorship. And Wednesday’s final hour rejected the opportunity to signal buyers were gaining traction. A temporary detour down Thursday isn’t required, but it wouldn’t be surprising.
Meanwhile, the confirmed breakout also qualifies as a bullish WedEX. Its influence applies to Friday afternoon (and Monday morning), and doesn’t prevent a temporary detour down on Thursday. Gapping down Thursday under the ~2598.00 prior highs would be difficult and unusual, so it would be unlikely, but it would serve by proxy to invert the WedEX.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Lower lows overnight at 1.1436 was only slightly lower, and recovered into the open only slightly into positive territory Wednesday, still needing to recover 1.1500 to signal a recovery underway.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s flat-to-higher price action was nonetheless as narrowly range bound as has been the past week. Extended narrowing ranges tend often to break falsely initially, regardless of whether the break is then extended or reversed.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-lower ranging Wednesday tested the narrow ongoing range’s lower-end, while still avoiding the range’s break.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s close at the 145-08 low was probed overnight down to 144-24 but recovered into Wednesday’s open to try avoiding its break. Ranging still has room up to 146-04 without yet triggering any recovery.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s EIA report wasn’t greeted from either a position of strength or weakness, as the recent range persisted overnight. No knee-jerk reaction was evident as the range extended, suggesting its next trending attempt would be retraced back into the range.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s pullback from Monday’s surge and overnight probe up to 3.72 had extended down overnight to 3.38, yet recovered back into positive territory in time to gap up Wednesday. The open above all prior intraday highs quickly attacked the prior overnight high to within 2 cents. But the balance of the session slid relentlessly back down to attack the overnight lows. The outside day’s reversal down does not greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… Treading water.
Still hovering at the open’s highs.
This afternoon’s 2670.75 bias-up signal was touched in time to invoke the grace period, and then touched in time again to avoid triggering. This is a noN-bias environment. Not bias-up with a target in-play. And not no-bias likely to hold resistance.
Meanwhile, the open’s surge to 2624.00 has yet to improve. A quick pullback had recovered to touch it, and a later recovery attacked it. Its retest would be likely to break higher, but no retest is required.
So, just hovering vulnerable to reversing the trend down.Now exiting the afternoon bias environment in rally mode would be credible for extending higher. A second consecutive higher close would confirm yesterday’s breakout.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jan 17, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s Philly Fed is the only Fed survey that is both high-profile and reliably influential to price action. It is announced simultaneously with two other items that don’t tend to influence price action.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2620.25 | 2620.75 |
| …would target | 2626.25 | 2626.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2610.50 | 2611.00 |
| …would target | 2602.50 | 2603.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.