Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jan 18, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open Fed speaker might trigger a price reaction. But only the post-open item is both high-profile and reliably influential to price action.
*John Williams Speaks
9:05 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2624.00 | 2623.75 |
| …would target | 2631.00 | 2630.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2617.00 | 2617.00 |
| …would target | 2610.00 | 2610.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Live to rise another day.
Overnight drop finds no reinforcements.
Gapping down to and through the 2598.00 “lower prior highs” would have inverted yesterday’s bullish WedEX. But its overnight test down to 2596.50 was already recovering before the open. WedEX remains bullish.
Testing and holding the bias-down target post-open would have reflected weak-handed sellers. Post-open action is rallying anyway, and not recovering the 2609.50 bias-down signal. So, at least an offsetting test of the 2619.25 bias-up signal is in-play. It has been attacked during a range that reacted down to 2611.00.
Already attacking the bias-up signal to within 3 ticks keeps it from becoming unfinished business if left outstanding. And holding the pre-open test of the 2601.00 bias-down target was too early to require an offsetting test of the 2625.25 bias-up target. But holding 2611.00 would be more vulnerable to extending higher anyway.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Detour, or ranging?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap up at 2614.75 blipped back down into Tuesday’s range before quickly extending higher to 2624.00. Just as quickly, Tuesday’s range attracted price back down to 2612.50. The choppy range persisted through the noon hour, before breaking higher to test 2626.00. Then Tuesday’s range attracted price back down one more time throughout the last 60-90 minutes. The drop reached only 2615.25 by the cash session close, qualifying as confirmation to Tuesday’s breakout session. Futures extended down to 2612.50. Bullish WedEX triggered.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday’s drop was initially consolidated through the Globex open, but soon resumed. Extending down eventually probed under “lower prior highs” to touch 2596.50 soon after Europe’s opens. A bounce tested 2606.00-2607.00, but that has reacted back down to attack 2600.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
We’ve got quite a conflict between two patterns. Wednesday afternoon’s dip back into Tuesday’s range held on just enough to confirm Tuesday’s breakout, which requires an eventual third higher close. Meanwhile, the abrupt intraday reversal at 2626.00 is exactly the topping behavior that I’ve been describing to expect at this stage of the rally. The eventual third higher close can be delayed by an intraday or multi-session detour, which was already indicated while Wednesday’s high was forming. The overnight drop could be part of the topping pattern, if this reaction down is recovered to a fresh high close in the next several days. Already topped and reversing down would require the breakout to fail, which the confirmation process is meant to avoid, and which is very rare. We’ll adopt that posture if WedEX inverts by proxy by today’s open gapping down back under the pre-breakout ~2598.00 “lower prior highs” — which the overnight drop is already testing. Otherwise, sellers not exploiting the overnight attempt would reinforce the upside attraction, helped by the bullish WedEX’s influence tomorrow afternoon.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2606.00 would be likely to trigger the 2609.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2612.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2619.00 | 2619.25 |
| …would target | 2625.00 | 2625.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2609.00 | 2609.50 |
| …would target | 2600.50 | 2601.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.