Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Weak WedEX.
Fresh afternoon lows undermining the bullish signal.
It’s WedEX time. And then some.
The noon hour’s shallow pullback from attacking 2056.00 had extended down to 2050.50 before the 1:20 bias timing window. Its reaction up to 2053.25 was reversed to fresh lows at 2047.50.
Just recovering the 2053.25 origin would satisfy this afternoon’s bullish WedEX. And it was attacked to 2052.00. But another downdraft has fallen to 2045.00. Simultaneously oversold RSIs there require its retest.
It’s too late for the WedEX to invert to bearish. But it could simply fail. Back above 2047.50 would start to signal a recovery underway. Otherwise, retesting 2045.00 by more than 2-3 ticks would question the WedEX influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having confirmed Wednesday’s breakout that now requires at least one eventual lower close, Friday’s gap up to test 1.1245 was unable to extend before dipping back to Thursday’s close. Now having filled the gap back down to Thursday’s close, closing back above 1.1245 would launch a bigger detour.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending Thursday’s post-open bounce peaked at 1258.50-1261.00 resistance Friday morning before reversing back down, the 1241.00 target to 1249.60.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s recovery to 16.50 wasn’t rejected Friday, nor was it improved as Gold still has a lower objective in-play.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Friday held the 163-16/163-22 pullback limit that keeps alive the 164-17 buy signal which had been only touched Thursday and not triggered. The morning’s recovery returned to 164-17, and is positioned again to recover it if a deeper downleg will be avoided.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Neutralizing the attraction above Thursday by filling the gap back to Wednesday’s 48.60 close has made the 47.75 sell signal credible for triggering if tested.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Bouncing Friday to 2.05 resistance could close higher to begin forming a bottom, but must still close above 2.11 to signal momentum reversing up.
Mid-day Update… Bigger fish to fry?
Upside potential met, and corrected, in time for bullish bias.
Yesterday afternoon’s rally had not gained traction for its efforts. Extending it this morning required gapping up above a relevant prior high at 2046.50.
Eventually, the 2055.00-2056.00 renewed bias-up target was met (all but 1 tick of it).
None of which has anything to do with the bullish WedEX, which begins its influence at the 1:20 bias timing window. Inverting it now is very unlikely, essentially requiring that a new accumulative pattern be triggered, its target met, and its signal retraced.
Barely enough time remains for dipping to 2048.00 or 2046.00 before a bullish bias takes over. Being vulnerable to a dip doesn’t require it. And back above 2054.25 would suggest it’s not coming.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon May 23, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s econ calendar is empty, except for a Fed speaker who’s early timing is otherwise unlikely to influence intraday price action. But being one of two Fed speakers, and being BULLard, it’s not unreasonable to prepare for some sort of attempt at an upward push.
*James Bullard Speaks
5:30 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
8:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2059.25 | 2056.00 |
| …would target | 2064.00 | 2061.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2047.75 | 2044.75 |
| …would target | 2042.75 | 2039.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.