Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Expansion’s back.
Big post-open rally.
The intraday range of yesterday’s probe of fresh lows was relatively narrow. That didn’t necessarily contradict my ongoing assumption that we’ve entered a period of heightened volatility. 
An inside day would have been suspicious, but at least Thursday was being productive with a new low.
Well, volatility has returned — with a vengeance. Gapping up to the 2043.00 bias-up signal soon extended to its 2048.50 bias-up target, and not much later has also touched 2054.00.
This is a renewed bias-up environment. Its 2055.00-2056.00 renewed bias-up target doesn’t require being met.
RSIs diverged negatively at the high, and now a reaction down is testing 2050.50 down to 2049.00. Any lower could shift the balance of the morning to defense, with room down to its 2043.00 bias-up signal. Back above 2052.25 would more likely extend to 2055.00-2056.00.
Exiting the bias environment under this morning’s 2043.00 bias-up signal would invert this afternoon’s bullish WedEX influence to bearish. Otherwise, even the most bullish WedEX would be fulfilled by only ranging flat-to-higher into the weekend (and delaying an aggressive rally until Monday morning).
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The retest of 2042.00 down to 2040.75 has recovered back up to 2045.50. Interestingly, both levels are preliminary indications through 9:45 for making the 2043.00 bias-up signal more or less likely to trigger at 10:15. And that should make all the difference for this morning’s trending direction.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Not (yet) backing down.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Enough chipping away at 2035.00 support had essentially required probing fresh lows down to 2025.00-2027.00 Thursday. Gapping down was retraced to 2039.50 before resolving down to fresh lows at 2022.00. Firming into the noon hour extended choppily higher to test 2036.00 during the afternoon bias environment. That’s where the cash session closed, despite the last hour briefly touching 2038.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s futures close had firmed back up to 2038.50. Globex action resumed the rally up to 2046.50 ahead of Europe’s opens. Ranging back down to 2042.00 has tried once to break lower, and is now trying again.
If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s rally gained no traction for its efforts — although it would have, had its last surge been 1 minute earlier. So, extending higher this morning relies on maintaining a gap up above prior highs. That’s essentially 2045.50, which is serving as resistance overnight. Otherwise, trending down this morning would be more likely than to simply back-and-fill and to wait for the afternoon’s bullish WedEX influence. How the open resolves a test of 2045.50 may determine whether we see 2033.00 and 2025.00-2027.00 again this week, or just 2056.00 and higher.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2040.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2043.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2045.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2051.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2048.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2046.25 | 2043.00 |
| …would target | 2051.75 | 2048.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2034.75 | 2031.50 |
| …would target | 2029.00 | 2025.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The optimism expressed by Thursday afternoon’s rally to 2036.25 was not a last gasp before sinking to fresh lows into the close. Not that 2036.25 was exceeded, not when it mattered — it equates to the cash session close.
So, the afternoon’s rally to 2036.25 may have been a last gasp before sinking to fresh lows. Just not into Thursday’s close. Probing a fresh low to the 2018.00 area remains likely. The bullish WedEX suggests it would be recovered into or out of the noon hour… assuming that the indicator doesn’t invert to bearish and target a probe under 2000.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.