Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2587.75 | 2588.00 |
| …would target | 2595.50 | 2595.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2575.50 | 2576.00 |
| …would target | 2568.75 | 2569.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s gap down was less than 2 points under Friday’s 2577.00 low. And the first post-open action probed it down to 2570.75. But not down to the 2567.25 overnight low, and not for long, before recovering 2577.00 and never looking back down. Of course, while preoccupied with not looking back down, the recovery attempt was having difficulty getting past the open’s highs.
Opening selling pressure was brief and optimism was impatient, two errors the recovery attempt made. More prolonged post-open weakness, not necessarily deeper, would have struck a bullish balance between pessimism and optimism. That could have launched a bigger recovery, instead of struggling to attract reinforcements.
The ongoing range now becomes more dependent on 2571.00 support where 2567.00 had been critical previously. Meanwhile, the range becomes more vulnerable to simply collapsing into a new downleg, instead of first probing fresh highs at 2606.00 or higher.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already having extended Thursday’s pullback an extra day, Wednesday’s surge needed confirmation without much further delay. Sunday night’s shallow fresh lows were recovered pre-open, but Monday’s session has only ranged narrowly sideways.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s narrow ranging persisted Sunday night and Monday, still not rejecting the hovering at recent highs. Another pullback can’t be discounted, whether or not deeper, but any additional pullback should be brief and recovered to fresh highs still targeting 1319.50.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging Monday continued the consolidation that was underway into the weekend, still not rejecting the recent higher, but also not immune to another dip before probing higher.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing above the 146-04 buy signal Sunday night by nearly a quarter-point was nevertheless retraced back to 146-04 before Monday’s open, which pulled back intraday to maintain the trading range above 145-08.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The reaction down from Friday’s pre-open test of 53.30 extended lower Sunday night to test 50.45. It was recovered enough before Monday’s open to hold 50.85-51.00 as support during narrow intraday fluctuation around unchanged. A deeper intraday probe is likely.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up sharply Sunday night was maintained through Monday’s open to potentially form an Island Reversal from the past 1-2 week trading range. Pullbacks have room down to 3.27 while maintaining the reversal pattern, but any deeper could still hold “lower prior highs” and resume the recovery.
Mid-day Update… Still holding up, and held-up.
Fluctuating back up to the morning’s high.
This morning’s 2588.75 high was also a buy signal, which was only touched and not triggered. Its resistance reacted back down to 2577.50 before the bias environment lapsed. The noon hour’s entry quickly recovered 2588.75, and the noon hour’s exit is still fluctuating around it.
But now 2588.75 is this afternoon’s bias-up signal. And it held as resistance through 1:30 after invoking the grace period, triggering a late no-bias environment. Resistance is likely to hold, but recovering 2590.50 would be credible for extending higher anyway. It would be “no-bias trending” and require being retraced, unless the signal were delayed until the bias environment had begun lapsing.
Meanwhile, back under 2585.25 would start to signal a deeper dip with potential down to this afternoon’s 2576.00 bias-down signal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jan 15, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s pre-open PPI is both high-profile and reliably influential to price action. No post-open reports are due, but the Fed speakers might trigger reactions similar to PPI.
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
11:30 AM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
1:00 PM ET
*Esther George Speaks
1:00 PM ET