Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2588.50 | 2588.75 |
| …would target | 2595.75 | 2596.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2575.50 | 2576.00 |
| …would target | 2570.00 | 2570.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding up.
Post-open recovery hits resistance.
The 2567.25 overnight low had recovered back up to Friday morning’s 2577.00 “higher prior low” and ranged sideways into the 2575.50 open. A quick dip down to 2571.00 was reversed up to 2580.00. Friday morning’s low was recovered through the opening 15 minutes of volatility.
Extending higher overlapped the 2584.25 bias-down signal at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. A pullback to 2580.00 was recovered to attack 2587.00. But the 2584.25 bias-down signal wasn’t recovered at 10:30. Officially, this is a bias-down environment.
But it is a late bias-down, by a 2-tick margin, after already meeting its bias-down target. Not the most reliable. Above 2588.00 would signal that the recovery was extending. Back under 2582.50 would start to signal another dip to the 2576.00 bias-down target underway.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Gapping back into the range.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s inside day offered nothing predictive or insightful to the bigger picture. It developed almost exclusively in negative territory, trending up from a gap down after mostly ranging sideways overnight. The morning’s bias-down held tests of its 2581.00 target down to 2577.00. Its recovery filled the gap back up to Thursday’s 2594.00 futures close by 2 points, and another dip’s recovery filled the gap back up to Thursday’s 2596.75 cash session close. Nothing about Friday’s session was predictive, let alone indicating the uptrend had ended short of testing the rally’s next higher objective at 2606.00. By the same token, nothing indicated that upside momentum had resumed, or that the recently formed Ascending Triangle would bother breaking higher before forming a reversal setup, and in either case ultimately collapsing.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped down 4-6 points and and soon extended that to 2582.50. A consolidation there resolved down sharply to probe Friday’s lows by 3 points testing 2574.00. Ranging sideways through midnight 3-4 points either way around 2574.00 persisted through Europe’s opens, but eventually broke lower again to attack 2567.00 at Thursday’s gap down. Now a bounce is testing 2574.00 as resistance.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Has so much selling pressure been expended overnight that the open inhibits reinforcements, and becomes more attractive to buyers? Simply greeting today’s open under Friday’s 2577.00 low would continue to make the current range vulnerable to launching a downleg. But the overnight dip is already testing Thursday’s 2566.00-2568.00 opening range. Maintaining its break through a relevant window could take 2606.00 of the table. But recovering back above Friday’s 2577.00 low through a relevant timing window would still allow that downleg to be delayed by a brief visit to 2606.00 or higher first. I suspect that even if we knew for certain that 2606.00 would be tested, gapping down may not begin recovering until after the 10:15 bias timing window has lapsed.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2574.00 would be likely to extend under the 2576.00 bias-down signal at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2579.00 would be unlikely to extend back under the 2576.00 at 10:15
Saturday Review’s recording (for 1/12/19) …No shortage of catalysts.
Yearly earnings begin this week, which also includes monthly expirations. All against the backdrop of a government shutdown and ongoing trade negotiations with China. Do those bricks comprise the proverbial Wall of Worry that this recent rally has been climbing? And if this rally is only a temporary corrective bounce, then where is it likely to end, and how will we know it has ended? These questions and more are answered during this week’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
JPM, WFC, WDC, GE, GS, MS, RYE, FDX
transcript
Rod David: -=-=-=-
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
jp: gm
Bill G: gm
David B: Good Morning
—————– (01/12/2019 09:36) —————–
Mark G: gm
—————– (01/12/2019 09:47) —————–
ljr iPad: pivot reversal applies to stocks too?
ljr iPad: :)
—————– (01/12/2019 10:01) —————–
David B: because of option expiration will it still leave questions unanswered either up or down?
David B: because of what option expirations can do
—————– (01/12/2019 10:04) —————–
Bill G: This option ex unusual since the following Mon is a holiday.
—————– (01/12/2019 10:05) —————–
ljr iPad: stocks: JPM WFC earnings tues morning.
Mark G: FWIW general perception that the rally may persist thru March with VIX coming down fast until we get China resolution & brexit news that may turn things around
David B: will some of the earlier reports to earnings and reactions important on how the market reacts for the next move?
ljr iPad: GS: earnings wed morning.
David B: yes
ljr iPad: MS: thurs morning
ljr iPad: thx
—————– (01/12/2019 10:09) —————–
David B: if we see bad news react positive means they were priced in?
—————– (01/12/2019 10:11) —————–
Mark G: AAPL’s warning followed by a very bearish day, Similar warning by smb else now may not have that effect
—————– (01/12/2019 10:13) —————–
ljr iPad: would news related pop or drop need to be retraces? ie shutdown or China?
—————– (01/12/2019 10:14) —————–
Mark G: right
Mark G: I mean a dip that is being bought
—————– (01/12/2019 10:18) —————–
David B: WDC,GE
—————– (01/12/2019 10:29) —————–
Bill G: RYE equal wt energy etf. At resist?
—————– (01/12/2019 10:33) —————–
Bill G: pbl or stop on GE?
—————– (01/12/2019 10:34) —————–
David B: FDX
—————– (01/12/2019 10:41) —————–
Bill G: Near .382 of May high and 50day ma also
—————– (01/12/2019 10:45) —————–
Mark G: more reliable pivot reversal would start reversing aftre 11:30?
—————– (01/12/2019 10:49) —————–
David B: yes
Mark G: thx much
Bill G: Have a good one
David B: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!