Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… Try, try again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report was greeted at the 2039.00 lows of 2-1/2 week old decline from 2105.00. The next lower objectives at 2030.00 and 2035.00 were fulfilled before the cash session open, which surged immediately to attack 2047.00. Retesting 2035.00 launched another rally, lasting through the close and extending to 2052.00-2054.00. The pre-open low was a “new Globex trend extreme” that will require eventual retest intraday.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s 2053.00 open quickly surged to attack 2058.00. Ranging back down to 2053.50 broke lower into Europe’s opens, probing negative territory down to 2049.00. Consolidating the dip for an hour then resolved up to probe fresh highs at 2059.50.
If, then…
Stopping short of 2056.00 Friday afternoon kept the session’s rally from reversing the trend up. If testing 2030.00 and 2035.00 ended the ongoing decline, then gapping up through 2059.50 is the next opportunity to try signaling it. Already testing 2059.50 overnight doesn’t make its recovery likelier, other than the nearer proximity. It’s still resistance, and holding its test still has a big consequence — like Wednesday night’s failed rally.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2057.00 would be likely to trigger the 2055.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2052.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
chaRTroom link to monitor the Globex session
Markets had closed before being able to react to Friday’s news that the Saudi oil minister was replaced. It’s being viewed as bearish for oil prices, but we’ll soon see how much the market cares.
Possibly more influential to the markets — at least, in astro- finance circles — is the new moon cycle that began Friday. This is called a super-moon, being at its closest point to earth. Giving it even greater significance is the coincidental timing of a rare passing by Mars between earth and the sun.
Apparently, the alignment is a sign of the end times. So, be sure your positions are hedged accordingly, in case the markets have not already discounted it. Monitor that in the chaRTroom when Globex opens at 6pm ET.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 5/7/16) … Opportunity’s knocking, gently.
Friday’s pre-open and post-open lows tested and held the ongoing decline’s next lower objectives. Reacting back up into the close stopped short of signaling the decline’s momentum had ended, let alone that momentum is reversing up. Monday’s open could still do that by proxy. And if it doesn’t…
We discussed relevant levels for either outcome during this weekend’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
CACO, TSLA, ULTA, GROW, GOOGL, NUGT, SWFT, URI, CRUS, AXP, PODD
05/07/2016 09:31:17 David B: Good Morning
05/07/2016 09:53:32 sm: slope cut in half?
05/07/2016 09:53:36 MK: ULTA
05/07/2016 09:53:49 sm: o
05/07/2016 09:53:50 sm: k
05/07/2016 09:53:59 MK: GROW
05/07/2016 09:54:06 MK: SWFT
05/07/2016 09:54:11 MK: URI
05/07/2016 09:54:13 MK: CRUS
05/07/2016 09:54:22 tom: GOOGL,NUGT
05/07/2016 09:55:13 MK: yes
05/07/2016 10:01:25 MK: AXP
05/07/2016 10:14:25 MK: wow should have bought NUGT rather than my actual stocks
05/07/2016 10:17:51 tom: ok thx
05/07/2016 10:26:20 MK: that good enough for a top?
05/07/2016 10:28:49 MK: ok thanks
05/07/2016 10:29:29 MK: OK
05/07/2016 10:29:30 MK: sounds good
05/07/2016 10:29:33 MK: have a good weekend
05/07/2016 10:29:47 MK: oops
05/07/2016 10:29:47 MK: yes
05/07/2016 10:29:49 MK: AXP
05/07/2016 10:29:50 MK: thanks
05/07/2016 10:29:55 MK: i’m short
05/07/2016 10:30:03 MK: ok
05/07/2016 10:30:41 Josey: PODD
05/07/2016 10:30:50 MK: thanks again
05/07/2016 10:31:18 MK: oh i have anohter
05/07/2016 10:31:20 MK: SRCL
05/07/2016 10:32:10 MK: JOSEY is that a long or a short?
05/07/2016 10:34:53 Josey: yes
05/07/2016 10:35:06 Josey: Long MK
05/07/2016 10:35:15 MK: have a good one
Saturday Review Link
Did the ongoing decline just end Friday? Its 2035.00 and 2030.00 objectives were neutralized, and the afternoon rallied well into positive territory. What action would tell us Monday morning or even Sunday night that a new upleg is underway? What are the consequences otherwise?
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for those answers and more at this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2060.75 | 2055.00 |
| …would target | 2066.50 | 2061.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2046.50 | 2041.00 |
| …would target | 2039.75 | 2034.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP INVALIDATED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.