Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
This is interesting, for how uninteresting it is.
It’s difficult to reverse intraday trending that exits a Friday’s bias environment beyond the session’s other timing window extremes. That doesn’t require extending the trend, although that’s often the result. And it doesn’t prohibit reversing anyway, although that’s rare — and short-lived when it happens.
Friday’s bias environment began lapsing at its 2050.50 bias-up target. It had been probed already up to 2052.25 a couple of times. Narrow ranging around it up to 2052.25 persisted for another hour.
Doesn’t seem interesting, I know. But considering the session had recovered from probing negative territory, maintaining the recover is actually pretty interesting. More so, the recovery came from pinting new lows for the ongoing decline, new lows that had satisfied the decline’s 2030.00 and 2035.00 objectives
Closing above at least 2056.00 would have been more interesting, confirming the decline has ended. Gapping up sufficiently Monday would serve by proxy, and be more capable of launching a recovery. Otherwise, resuming the decline could still hold a retest of Friday’s pre-open lows down to 2027.00 before suggesting the decline is extending.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
The link to this weekend’s Saturday Review will be sent overnight, well ahead of the 9;30am ET start.
Mid-day Update… That might be that.
Post-open dip recovers to launch afternoon rally.
This morning could have staged a tremendous rally. Has it only been delayed to the afternoon?
Recovering the open’s tests of both bias-down parameters would have put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters, essentially 2051.00 and 2056.00. But the open’s surge was retraced back down to the morning’s 2034.75 bias-down target. The bias environment exit had recovered back up to the morning’s 2041.00 bias-down signal as resistance.
The noon hour’s dip to 2037.25 was recovered to test the afternoon’s 2044.25 bias-up signal. It wasn’t triggered, but the afternoon’s 2050.50 bias-up target is being tested, anyway.
I had described during this pre-market Tour one bullish scenario that could avoid thoroughly testing the lower-end of early-April’s consolidation. Closing above 2056.00 or even above 2059.50 is basically the parameter, which is another 4-7 points higher.
The extra post-open dip did help to refuel buyers, and RSIs are overbought at the 2052.25 high, so a reaction down would likely recover — albeit from 2045.00 or 2042.50, and not necessarily today.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Spiking up Friday in reaction the morning’s payrolls number held a test of the 1.1485 sell signal that had triggered Thursday. A second consecutive lower close would be that much more bearish, than just to confirm Thursday’s breakout.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Second time was a charm for triggering the 1282.70 buy signal that was reinstated since fresh lows were probed after Wednesday’s gap up had failed. Fresh highs targeting 1313.50 remain in-play.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s reaction to the morning’s payrolls report was a test of 17.50 resistance, whose recovery through the close would suggest the pullback had ended — although closing above 17.60 would be optimal for reinstating the 18.80 target.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The knee-jerk reaction to Friday’s payrolls report spiked up to 166-16 before reacting back down to 165-00 support. Holding it would maintain this leg’s potential for filling the gap back up to 166-30 and extending to 167-26.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Early weakness reacted up temporarily through the 44.75 buy signal to 44.35, before dipping back under the signal. At least a deeper pullback was avoided. But triggering the buy signal would help to maintain the near-term potential for producing the required new high close.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s negative reaction to the morning’s EIA report did fill one outstanding gap below at 2.07, and Friday’s early follow-through attacked the 2.03 gap’s bar down to within 1 penny. Back above 2.14 would now signal momentum reversing up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon May 9, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s Fed speaker is too early to have a reliable influence on post-open price action. The post-open econ report has no track record for influencing price action. Monday’s calendar just isn’t influential.
Charles Evans Speaks
5:10 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Neel Kashkari Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2050.00 | 2044.25 |
| …would target | 2056.00 | 2050.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2039.50 | 2034.00 |
| …would target | 2033.00 | 2027.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.