Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Bouncing from the 2057.25 low hasn’t extended above its initial 2062.00 reaction. But that hasn’t been rejected. Instead, an Ascending Triangle has formed. Isolating the overnight probe under yesterday’s 2059.50 post-open low is critical to preventing the overnight slide from resuming post-open, and threatening the 2056.00 area’s last line of support.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Australian banana peels.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday’s 2065.00 open gapped up just above Friday afternoon’s high and essentially marginalized sellers for the day. The choppy morning finally started resolving up at noon, rallying from 2063.00 to 2077.00. Then it ran into the lower-end of the range that had preceded Thursday afternoon’s drop — “higher prior lows” and pivotal trendline at 2076.50-2077.50. Despite seeming relentless, the rally gained no traction as only the bias environment’s exit was above a prior timing window’s high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-lower ranging back to 2072.50 was sent spiraling lower by a Australia’s interest rate cut. The pace began slowing after probing under yesterday’s 2065.00 open, but has nevertheless extended to attack 2057.00. That’s under yesterday’s 2059.50 post-open low
If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s rally created a lot of room to absorb selling pressure before it could damage the recovery’s pattern. That room ended around 2068.00-2069.00. Just recovering it would be a 61.8% retracement from current lows. And no influential econ report is scheduled today that might be a catalyst. Independently recovering to 2068.00-2069.00 pre-open would be credible, but that’s still resistance. The most bullish scenario might be another choppy morning. Not renewing the bias-down signal — recovering the 2064.50 bias-down target — would be bullish. Anything less would be vulnerable to retesting Friday’s lows, and there’s no bullish reason for that.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2059.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2064.50 bias-down target by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2066.00 would be unlikely to renew bias-down. Exiting the open above 2071.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2069.75 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2084.00 | 2078.00 |
| …would target | 2089.75 | 2083.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2075.75 | 2069.75 |
| …would target | 2070.50 | 2064.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday afternoon was so predictable. It was so predictable, because Monday morning was not. Actually, Monday morning’s wide swings responded to calculable inflection points. But those tests never sustained a breakout in either direction.
So, Monday afternoon succeeded where the morning had failed. After struggling all morning to break free from its range, price action glided higher through the afternoon — almost effortlessly.
But did the afternoon rally gain traction for its effort? The bias environment began lapsing above the noon hour’s high. But the final hour’s entry and the 3:10-3:20 timing window only maintained. That’s enough for the burden of proof to be on sellers, but not enough to require higher highs.
Higher highs would target the 2080.25 area, and probably lead to retesting two-week old highs. Being so much potential upside, any bearish scenario is likely to be aggressive. So, shallow weakness is likely to resolve up.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Scraping the surface.
Target met. More to come?
Gapping up this morning was the alternative to resuming the Thursday-Friday decline. This morning’s late bias-up let its 2073.00 target become “unfinished business above.” It also became this afternoon’s bias-up target, and it has been met.
Now the afternoon bias environment is lapsing. Still overlapping 2073.00 won’t invalidate the upside momentum, but entering the final hour above it would put into play 2080.00-2081.00.
More so, extending the rally today would be as bullish as if last week’s bounces had ever closed above 2091.00 resistance. Having exited the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, entering the final hour even higher would be helpful confirmation.
Otherwise, until there’s a little complexity back under 2073.00, the nearest sell signal currently is 2069.00.