Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The 2065.25 bias-up signal’s was pierced by 3 ticks before its first reaction down. RSIs diverged negatively on its retest. And now its second reaction down has recovered to fresh highs at 2066.50.
But it’s all moot without also making an impression on the opening 15 minutes of volatility. And that means extending higher with limited delay — perhaps touching 2064.50 before shooting higher, or simply rushing through 2067.00 toward the 2073.00 bias-up target.
More than just a blip-down under 2063.75 would become much less likely to trigger bias-up. An offsetting test of the 2054.50 bias-down signal would be the recovery’s last line of defense.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Threatening bias-up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday afternoon’s slide had extended down overnight to greet Friday’s open gapping down at 2063.00. The morning’s bias environment fell to 2046.00, which the afternoon’s bias environment retested. Their 2057.00 interim bounce was recovered during the last half-hour’s rally back to 2063.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s weaker Globex open continued ranging flat-to-lower down to 2055.50, back up to 2059.00. Firming into Europe’s opens attacked 2063.00, but only momentarily before reversing aggressively back down to 2057.00. It was recovered almost as aggressively, and now fresh highs are touching 2065.50. That is this morning’s bias-up signal, i.e. resistance.
If, then…
Friday afternoon’s range isn’t likely to withstand a retest as support. It represented a retest of early-April’s consolidation that had launched the last rally leg. And its retest was recovered to close above the consolidation. So, either Monday’s open is already rallying — gapping up and extending — or else the decline is resuming. Overnight action hasn’t been overly-optimistic, but neither has it yet indicated a sizable gap up that would be likely also to extend. Regardless, not indicating a gap down should be bullish, as this stage of the pattern is much less likely to maintain Friday’s range.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2067.25 would be likely to trigger the 2065.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2062.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
chaRTroom Globex link
A big merger is called off (HAL, BHI), Puerto Rico announces officially its intent to miss tomorrow’s interest payment, and Baghdad’s Green Zone is a mess. See how the market absorbs the latest developments, when Globex begins trading at 6pm ET by clicking here.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/30/16) …
Last week’s decline was really Thursday afternoon’s and Friday morning’s decline. The week previously had been all about either recovering from dips or testing resistance. Although relevant support — if not also critical — held Friday’s thorough testing, no recovery is yet signaled… So, what would qualify as that signal Monday morning, or even Sunday night? What is the alternative, and how far can either scenario extend? These and other questions are answered in this weekend’s Saturday Review, linked below.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
FCX, JOY, ERII, ALB, CB, GROW, POT, CACC, HOG, SBUX, CLF, ULTA, CHK, AAPL
04/30/2016 09:13:46 sm: I asked this previously, but feel like I need to ask again – Can the 2110 target be adequately satisfied with the test of the 2105 level? Is that close enough for the market to legitimately be in the process of resuming the decline?
04/30/2016 09:31:49 David B: Good Morning
04/30/2016 09:31:50 sm: good
04/30/2016 09:52:25 David B: could the low on friday be a warning shot across the bow?
04/30/2016 09:53:08 David B: as anything this week been distributive?
04/30/2016 09:54:36 Josey: I have never seen a W pattern on a intr day, but when I have on a longer term it launched a rally. Is it bullish short term?
04/30/2016 10:00:35 Mark Glezer: Has NDX been a leading indicator in this multi-session decline and ES maybe just joining in & trying to catch up?
04/30/2016 10:04:21 sm: Not testing 2110 would seem to be analaous to an intraday target that doesn’t get tested and probed because of weak-handed sentiment that prevents it. Contrarian view suggests that leaving that level will eventually attract price back to that level
04/30/2016 10:06:06 David B: yes that answers th question
04/30/2016 10:06:11 David B: the
04/30/2016 10:06:50 Josey: yes
04/30/2016 10:11:24 Mark Glezer: yes
04/30/2016 10:18:05 David B: FCX,JOY
04/30/2016 10:19:46 MK: wow
04/30/2016 10:19:56 MK: FCX totally fell off my radar
04/30/2016 10:21:46 MK: ALB
04/30/2016 10:21:48 MK: CB
04/30/2016 10:21:52 MK: GROW
04/30/2016 10:21:58 MK: POT
04/30/2016 10:22:03 MK: CACC
04/30/2016 10:22:05 MK: HOG
04/30/2016 10:22:07 MK: SBUX
04/30/2016 10:22:12 MK: ULTA
04/30/2016 10:29:58 MK: ALB has a big interest in Lithium
04/30/2016 10:30:02 MK: as in Batteries
04/30/2016 10:30:36 MK: ok i’ll pare off
04/30/2016 10:30:40 MK: no need to do more work
04/30/2016 10:30:42 MK: i get the gist
04/30/2016 10:34:13 MK: its a long
04/30/2016 10:34:36 MK: yeah i’m in from 112
04/30/2016 10:34:39 MK: so no thanks
04/30/2016 10:34:42 MK: i’ll take my profit
04/30/2016 10:41:23 MK: yeah i sold high 50s
04/30/2016 10:41:33 MK: covered a bunch friday morning
04/30/2016 10:41:50 MK: ok
04/30/2016 10:42:00 MK: will press on monday
04/30/2016 10:42:01 David B: CLF
04/30/2016 10:42:03 MK: if we are weak
04/30/2016 10:42:15 MK: I got DESTROYED
04/30/2016 10:42:18 MK: by starbucks
04/30/2016 10:42:37 MK: was sized wayyyy too big
04/30/2016 10:42:39 MK: in the high 50s
04/30/2016 10:42:52 MK: and that move above stopped me out of 50% of my position
04/30/2016 10:42:59 MK: i’m BEARISH
04/30/2016 10:43:21 MK: ok
04/30/2016 10:43:23 MK: sweet
04/30/2016 10:43:30 Josey: szym, xone
04/30/2016 10:44:48 David B: CHK
04/30/2016 10:45:55 MK: trying to leg into this short
04/30/2016 10:45:58 MK: on ulta
04/30/2016 10:46:05 MK: i’m short at 205
04/30/2016 10:46:08 MK: i know
04/30/2016 10:46:09 MK: you hate it
04/30/2016 10:51:22 MK: If you look at the S&P aand AAPL correlation
04/30/2016 10:51:32 MK: it has massively diverged in Q1
04/30/2016 10:51:36 MK: and will continue to do so
04/30/2016 10:52:37 David B: thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!