Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The series of higher lows and higher highs since Monday’s low may have come to an end. Thursday afternoon’s slide from 2093.50 fell 28 points into the close. A last-minute bounce from 2065.50 finished back above the 2067.00-2069.00 lower target under yesterday’s lows.
Testing 2067.00-2069.00 could still launch a new rally leg, so long the test held, and so long as the launch was done appropriately. RSIs did diverge negatively at the low, so there is no “unfinished business below.” And the sudden relentlessness of the afternoon’s slide actually makes it easier to retrace.
But the afternoon’s downtrend remains intact. The afternoon’s sellers gained traction — they’ve already been well-rewarded, so gapping up above the bias environment’s 2088.00 high could invert that traction. Otherwise, Friday’s only other bullish bounce potential is from an early test of 2056.50. Yikes.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Snatching defeat.
Straight down since fulfilling this morning’s rally objective.
This afternoon’s 2088.00 bias-down signal triggered. Price action had only slid since fulfilling this morning’s offsetting test of the 2093.75 bias-up signal. It took awhile before actually trending under 2088.00, but the 2083.00 bias-down target was met.
And then some. Fresh post-open lows are attacking 2072.00, potentially targeting 2067.00-2069.00. RSIs are oversold and getting more deeply oversold.
The decline gained traction already by exiting the bias environment under the noon hour’s low, and then entering the final hour under the bias environment’s low. So, absent a stunning recovery by the close, likely to probe lower tomorrow morning.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Except for closing above 1.1355, Thursday’s ranging around the 1.1345 bounce limit would have maintained the likelihood for filling the gaps back down to 1.1282 and 1.1249 before any durable rally would be credible. A second consecutive higher close would confirm a retest of the highs underway.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close spike down to 1241.00 was retested overnight, and then recovered enough to gap up Thursday. Extending higher intraday filled the gap back to last week’s 1267.80 gap up above prior highs. Back under 1260.00 would signal the rally had ended, and under 1254.00 would reverse the trend back down.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s post-close dip was recovered overnight and Thursday continue firming intraday to within a nickel of filling the gap back to last week’s 17.64 high opening print.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above the 162-14 buy signal Wednesday had initially extended higher overnight, but Thursday was mostly spent fluctuating narrowly around the buy signal. The gap back down to 161-04 can still be filled near-term.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s recovery to fresh highs firmed into Thursday’s open, testing 46.00. The sell signal cannot be raised higher than 43.85-43.90.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Thursday under 2.11 greeted the morning’s EIA report from a position of weakness. The follow-through was nominal, but a rally into the weekend is needed to avoid targeting fresh lows under 1.95.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 29, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s early-morning Fed speaker would be considered influential except for his timing. The resolution to any price reaction should be duplicated by the day’s subsequent econ reports. The post-open PMI number is released privately to institutional subscribers, and any price reaction is usually duplicated when released publicly.
Rob Kaplan Speaks
6:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Employment Cost Index
8:30 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2100.75 | 2095.00 |
| …would target | 2106.25 | 2100.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2093.75 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2088.75 | 2083.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.