Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2061.50 | 2055.25 |
| …would target | 2066.50 | 2060.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2053.50 | 2047.50 |
| …would target | 2046.50 | 2040.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Is decline done digging?
All downside objectives met. Now it’s a matter of time.
The 2062.50 opening blip-down reacted up almost immediately to the 2066.25 bias-down signal. A brief hesitation had begun breaking lower ahead of the 9:45 econ report. The decline extended through the first half-hour down to 2053.50.
Testing “lower prior highs” in the 2056.00 area was likely if 2067.00-2069.00 couldn’t hold its test. Trending down substantially deeper is likely if 2056.00 doesn’t hold its test, too.
We might not know that resolution until this afternoon.
So far, a bounce is testing 2063.00. But that’s only bullish if restrained through the morning. The past three sessions became their own worst enemy by their early overly-optimistic rallies. This being a bias-down environment, a bounce should be contained by the 2066.25 bias-down signal if tested.
Meanwhile, a retest of the 2053.50 low is possible. Its oversold RSIs require an eventual retest. This is a renewed bias-down environment, but the renewed bias-down target has essentially been met. Doing that sooner rather than later would allow time to exit the bias environment bouncing.
The bearish scenario hasn’t changed. Two days of illiquidity are fast-approaching, which could start to encourage sellers by failing not only to hold this test of 2056.00 lower prior highs, but also failing to greet the afternoon recovering,
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
A pre-open break from the overnight range is probing yesterday’s 2065.50 lows down to 2063.50. The key to recovering this morning is for the open to experience as much pain as possible without extending too deeply to avoid triggering no-bias. The key to extending down is not to absorb the open’s dip.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Calm before the storm.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday morning completely retraced its overnight plunge. The open had already recovered from 2070.25 to 2080.25, and the bias environment began lapsing at its 2093.75 objective. The noon hour’s pullback became something else entirely, triggering the 2088.00 bias-down signal and extending well below its target to 2065.25. Ultimately, 2067.00-2069.00 held as support.
Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s closing bounce was extended to its 2075.50 target, and reversed down immediately. That cycle has repeated several times while ranging choppily between 2068.00-2075.00.
If, then…
Gapping up enough to reject yesterday afternoon’s decline seems unlikely now. Hovering optimistically short of touching yesterday’s lows isn’t likely to suddenly launch a durable rally. So, suddenly launching a durable rally would be likely to fail. Recovering from at least a momentarily blip-down to fresh lows would be more credible. Of course, that setup’s first stage would meanwhile risk extending yesterday afternoon’s decline. And that could extend to the 2056.00 area’s “lower prior highs.” Whichever the session intends, it should be obvious early, as Friday morning biases are likely to persist through the noon hour.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2064.00 would be likely to trigger the 2066.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2069.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2085.50 | 2079.75 |
| …would target | 2091.75 | 2086.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2072.00 | 2066.25 |
| …would target | 2055.25 | 2059.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.