Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
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Tuesday afternoon’s narrow ranging unfortunately fulfilled expectations that volatility would become inhibited ahead of AAPL’s post-close earnings. Fortunately, that range included session lows, which were retested by a blip-down. Its recovery back into the range nearly flat-lined around 2084.50 until a last-minute spike up at the close to 2089.00.
The spike up was literally last-minute, certainly too late to be predictive. Too late to trigger a signal like Monday afternoon’s rally had tried to announce, for extending higher overnight and through Tuesday’s open.
No traction was gained again Tuesday, once again requiring Wednesday’s open to gap if it intends to trend intraday. Even then, there is no trending to resume, so gapping must extend quickly to avoid reversing back into the range. Already having chipped away at resistance, gapping up to retest 2091.00 would be more reliable for extending higher. Otherwise, fresh lows would target 2067.00-2069.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Another chance, for both.
Session’s last window is at same intersection as this morning.
The alternative to not extending this morning’s gap up was to resume the decline. The gap up did extend, just in time to attack its 2091.75 bias-up target to within 3 ticks. The alternative of resuming the became unlikely.
But the bias environment was invalidated back under its 2086.00 bias-up signal. And overnight lows were probed down to this morning’s 2079.75 bias-down signal.
There is no unfinished business below. And none above, either. Fresh afternoon highs above 2086.00 might be inhibited from extending with AAPL’s post-close earnings looming. Back under 2081.75 would target fresh session lows.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday wasn’t any more credible for avoiding a retest of Friday’s low close, but testing 1.1345 was needed before reacting back down intraday, and then only to attack Tuesday’s post-open lowss.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite having held the 1241.00 bounce limit Monday, gapping back down Tuesday to the 1234.50 sell signal was recovered to probe retest 1241.00. Breaking back under 1234.50 would still target a test of 1222.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s narrow ranging persisted into Tuesday, which isn’t bearish, but does suggest the rally targeting 18.80 might need a blip-down before suddenly snapping higher.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows Tuesday morning tested 161-00, which now allows a close above 162-12 to launch an upleg.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Tuesday from triggering the 43.10 buy signal Monday and extending higher intraday to probe above 44.00 avoided a second consecutive lower close that would have confirmed the sell signal. But a gap was left outstanding at Monday’s close, undermining any rally effort.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down again Tuesday tested “lower prior highs” at 2.14. A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would require an eventual third lower close. So resuming the rally to 2.34-2.40 must be obvious by the afternoon — especially to greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 27, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Pending Home Sales wouldn’t normally be highlighted as influential to price action, but recent housing sector reports have been getting a reaction. Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC policy statement is the real highlight, the month’s most reliable econ activity.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
*Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2093.50 | 2087.50 |
| …would target | 2099.50 | 2093.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2085.50 | 2079.75 |
| …would target | 2080.00 | 2074.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.