Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2092.00 | 2086.25 |
| …would target | 2097.50 | 2091.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2084.75 | 2079.00 |
| …would target | 2079.75 | 2074.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Live by the surge, die by the surge.
Another post-open surge falls flat.
Today’s bullish scenario required a blip-down to fresh lows. Stretch the rubber band and prove there was no sponsorship for extending down. Reacting up a little would be expected to attract buyers.
The last-minute pre-open dip to 2079.75 was already reversing up into the open. The gap back to yesterday’s 2086.00 cash session close was filled. That generated the same warning as yesterday. And like yesterday, a reaction down could have recovered. Also like yesterday, it didn’t.
The 2081.00 bias-down signal triggered late, and already the 2075.50 bias-down target has been attacked to within 3 ticks. Oversold RSIs at the low require its eventual retest. Exiting the bias environment back above 2081.00 would suggest that retest will wait.
Meanwhile, this area can be tested as support before becoming bearish. Today’s bullish scenario hasn’t really changed — A rally isn’t really possible until late-afternoon, likelier if greeting the FOMC statement nearer to this morning’s highs.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Stoic calm, or flat-lining? Regardless of which, the narrow overnight ranging is persisting into the open. A post-open dip has room down to the 2076.00 area without launching a new downtrend, and not a lot of time to recover. Upside potential should be limited to testing or probing yesterday’s highs, but probably not trending ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC statement.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Stiff upper-lip won’t get the rip.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
The rally’s resumption was a victim of its own success Tuesday. Its own success, and its late sponsorship. Monday afternoon’s rally didn’t surge until the final minutes, the overnight rally never cleared Sunday night’s prior high, and the post-open surge was almost forgotten, then quickly attacked its 2091.75 target. Reacting down under overnight lows was recovered to range choppily sideways up to 2084.00–2085.00 as post-close AAPL earnings inhibited trending.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s last-minute spike up to 2089.00 had reacted back down to 2083.75 on AAPL’s earnings miss. The Globex open extended the reaction down to 2081.00. And that was the end of that. As usual, price action was inhibited by the anxiousness, and the news was a non-event. A momentary surge to 2087.00 at Europe’s opens was retraced to range narrowly around 2084.00. That’s the ES. Meanwhile, NQs plummeted 55 points in reaction to AAPL, but also only ranged narrowly sideways overnight.
If, then…
If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs… then maybe you haven’t checked your voicemail? (Apologies to Rudyard and Woody.) Yesterday’s ES pattern interrupted the decline’s momentum from last Wednesday, being the first session not to probe the prior day’s low. But essentially maintaining positive territory did not reverse momentum up, and buyers gained no traction for the effort. Absent gapping up this morning to resume the recovery from Monday’s low, another probe of fresh lows becomes likely. So, the ES holding up compared to NQ had better be appreciated soon, because the lack of upside momentum only enables a morning dip. And no influential econ reports are scheduled until this afternoon’s FOMC statement.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2078.50 would be likely to trigger the 2081.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2083.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2094.00 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2099.50 | 2093.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2086.75 | 2081.00 |
| …would target | 2081.50 | 2075.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.