Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Shift change.
Still in negative territory, with a window opening.
This morning’s 2071.50 bias-down target defined the morning’s lower-end. Hovering just above it for an hour before a blip-down fulfilled it down to 2071.00, reacting up sharply to test 2076.00.
Another elapsed before extending higher to test the afternoon’s 2079.50 bias-up signal, but that held. And the bias environment has drifted back down to test 2076.00.
Now the bias environment is lapsing. Since a fresh afternoon high would be part of a return into positive territory, and limited time remains, any credible recovery would be very aggressive, and very product, targeting a probe above 2086.00. Otherwise, the balance of the afternoon may continue drifting, to 2074.25 and lower.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday morning was only contained within Friday’s range, but it did duplicate Friday’s downtrending. A gap is no left outstanding back to Friday’s close, further suggesting that Monday’s bounce is only temporary.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Monday is not an appropriate way to end the last week’s plunge, let alone after stopping optimistically short of fulfilling unfinished business just below at 1222.00. Holding 1241.50 as resistance and reversing back under 1234.50 should resume the decline.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s firm open didn’t extend higher, which at least avoids confirming last week’s plunge, but still needs to restart the rally.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An eventual third lower close had been put into play by Tuesday’s confirmed breakout, which could be fulfilled Monday after the open’s probe of fresh lows remained in negative territory through the noon hour.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night flirted with the 43.10 sell signal but recovered enough to open Monday flat. An intraday retest of overnight lows could still trigger the sell signal.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh highs attacked 2.18 at Sunday’s open but reversed to open Monday flat-to-lower, trending down even deeper intraday to 2.03. Back above 2.08 would resume the rally, targeting 2.20-2.25.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 26, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Have you noticed the daily econ calendars have been pretty thin? That’s done. Tuesday’s pre-open Durable Goods is both high-profile and has a track record for influencing price action. More so, any reaction it produces tends to be repeated by subsequent reports.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2086.00 | 2079.50 |
| …would target | 2091.25 | 2085.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2077.75 | 2071.50 |
| …would target | 2073.25 | 2066.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… For old time’s sake.
Last week’s reversal bleeding into this week’s open.
Without yet trending back up above a prior high before the weekend, last week’s rally had potential for bleeding into the new week. After making its imprint, a recovery remains possible. Potential for a recovery remains alive thanks to Sunday night’s opening surge.
Sunday night’s opening surge wasn’t outright bullish. Neutralizing the 2091.00 objective above has been the recovery’s worst development. Its reversal down to 2074.00 was recovered to attack 2086.00, which has also proved unwise.
All of that overnight optimism hasn’t just failed to gain traction intraday — it hasn’t been repeated intraday. Post-open action has only trended down, in a series of lower lows and lower highs.
Fresh lows are being probed down to 2072.50. The 2071.50 target would fulfill the 2080.25 bias-down signal’s selling pressure. Resolving any bounce lower would next target 2067.00-2069.00. Rallying from either target could recover all of the overnight drop from 2091.00.