Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The recovery back up to 2086.00 had formed a Symmetrical Triangle. The pattern often breaks falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. But its initial breakout has only extended. And its initial breakout was down.
Now 2077.50 is being tested, whose break through 9:45 would suggest the 2080.25 bias-down signal will trigger at 10:15. Retesting Friday’s 2075.00 low could easily lead to 2067.00-2069.00.
Exiting the open back above 2081.75 could at least marginalize sellers, even if its upside this morning were limited to only a test of 2086.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Containing their optimism.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s open blipped-down to touch the 2081.75 bias-down signal. Without triggering it, an offsetting test of the 2091.00 bias-up signal was put into play. That didn’t prevent a mid-morning drop to the 2075.50 bias-down target. But holding its test only cemented the 2091.00 objective into becoming “unfinished business above.” Friday afternoon rallied to fulfill two interim objectives, first retracing the morning’s bias-down signal, and then extending to the 10:15 2086.00 print. No traction was gained, but oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Don’t blink, you’ll miss it… Sunday night’s open gapped up to 2091.50, immediately fulfilling Friday’s unfinished business above. That bit of optimism was reversed abruptly by a reversal that eventually tested 2081.75. A bounce attacked 2086.00 into Europe’s opens. Its optimism was also reversed abruptly, too, by steep slide that tested Friday’s 2075.00 low down to 2074.00. Optimism is poking its head out again, retracing all of the last drop to attack 2086.00 again.
If, then…
Unfinished business below and above at 2075.00 and 2091.00 did not require intraday retest. Their attractions are now neutralized. And the open is indicated essentially unchanged around 2086.00. Opening flat with no outstanding attraction would make for a very lifeless morning. Resuming the rally is still likelier, more so after three overnight instances of quashing optimism. The latest instance — recovering the steep slide from 2086.00 — has formed a Symmetrical Triangle whose break lower may be resolving up now. Gapping up would be helpful confirmation, while a flat open would suggest another attack on the lows.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2086.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2089.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2091.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Sunday night’s Globex link
A relatively dull weekend on the geopolitical and macroeconomic fronts. Does that mean nothing will interfere with extending Friday afternoon’s recovery and fulfilling its “unfinished business above”?
CLICK HERE to monitor overnight action in the chaRTroom.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/23/16) …
One of my favorite sessions ever. Of course, its focus was the market’s bigger picture: how it got here, why, where it’s going, and why.
That included a review the bullish WedEX signal which gave us last Monday’s morning-long buy signal. Then we jumped forward to Friday’s unfulfilled upside and how sellers proved themselves to be weak-handed. The current setup was compared to the midweek OPEC rumor’s weak-handed rally, as a guideline for Sunday and Monday’s resolution.
The conversation got a little thicker when we discussed correlations and decoupling among markets. But that was nothing compared to our deep discussion of templates — what they mean, and what they don’t. We dipped into some of my methodology’s aspects that I don’t discuss often, so don’t watch without a strong cup of coffee, or a big bottle of scotch.
No stock analyses were requested.
04/23/2016 09:24:09 If, Then… Market Timing: The charting application is being difficult this morning, please bear with me… Thank you
04/23/2016 09:35:12 David B: Good Morning
04/23/2016 09:35:13 sm: audio is good. no charts
04/23/2016 09:37:20 jp: gm
04/23/2016 09:38:26 sm: saw them for about 2 seconds
04/23/2016 09:38:44 sm: good to go
04/23/2016 10:08:03 David B: what closing high would then say we are no longer in a bear market?
04/23/2016 10:14:42 David B: so we need to start distribution before we call a top?
04/23/2016 10:15:02 David B: start to see distribution
04/23/2016 10:22:28 sm: You’re saying that the price action in March was ‘accumulative’? That seems to contradict with it being a ‘topping template’. Can you clarify?
04/23/2016 10:23:14 sm: That’s what it was called at the time
04/23/2016 10:24:31 sm: But now we’re calling the price action ‘accumultive’. Is there a way that we can recognize that in real time so that we’re no distracted by a ‘topping template’?
04/23/2016 10:25:36 sm: – –
04/23/2016 10:26:11 sm: It doesn’t help AFTER the fact to characterize the price action as ‘accumulative’
04/23/2016 10:29:05 sm: – –
04/23/2016 10:32:46 sm: Even though it’s accumulkation, can’t we tell that it’s weak-handed based on the timing windows?
04/23/2016 10:36:33 sm: — I agree that it was an important decision point, but the idea that ‘accumulation’ was taking place connotes to me that we might have known better that the outcome was going to be up, rather than seeing the ‘topping template’ be fulfilled.
04/23/2016 10:36:48 David B: when you say we need to gap up to gain traction what is considered a gap up. Is this a level above the high for the day?. I’m assuming the opposite for sellers below the days low?
04/23/2016 10:38:37 sm: ok, thanks for giving time to that discussion.
04/23/2016 10:39:26 Josey: If the currencies and metals are to trend down monday morning, wouldn’t it take the market with it?
04/23/2016 10:40:00 David B: yes
04/23/2016 10:40:54 David B: session high
04/23/2016 10:41:16 David B: ok thanks
04/23/2016 10:42:57 Josey: currency
04/23/2016 10:42:58 jp: si
04/23/2016 10:43:42 David B: even we get a large rally in oil is oil becoming decoupled with the market. what i’m saying we don’t need oil t get us out above the 2120. it seems like the dollar is the key in all for the next rally
04/23/2016 10:48:15 David B: we also have a fed meeting and 1Q GDP this week do you think the market will focus on this at all?
04/23/2016 10:56:02 Josey: Thank you!
04/23/2016 10:56:49 David B: thanks
04/23/2016 10:56:53 jp: ety
04/23/2016 10:56:54 sm: thx
Saturday Review Link – REPLACEMENT
Sorry, the Saturday Review links were mapped incorrectly and a correction this morning has changed the info I sent you overnight. Please use the following link. The start time will be delayed by several minutes…