Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Rumor milled.
No-bias objective is cut short by OPEC rumors.
Repeatedly testing this morning’s 2096.25 bias-up signal prevented it from triggering. That put into play an offsetting test of the 2088.25 bias-down signal. It was attacked down to 2089.50.
The objective was attacked, and it likely would have been probed back down to and through yesterday’s lows. But then the OPEC rumor hit, taking Crude higher and ES to fresh session highs at 2100.50.
Unfortunately, I had no buy signal working, and other than violating the drop’s bounce limit above 2091.25, I didn’t participate in the surge.
Testing 2100.00-2101.00 at the open would have been bullish. Yesterday’s buyers gained no traction, so resuming the rally before late-afternoon had to begin abruptly and aggressively. Delaying the test of 2100.00-2101.00 is not bullish. Its test just reacted down to 2097.00, and any deeper would reinstate the morning’s decline.
Otherwise, back above 2099.75 and 2101.00 could trigger bias-up, but fresh highs would still be much more vulnerable to reversing back down before the final hour.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 21, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy, but there are only two reliably influential reports. The pre-open Philly Fed is the only relevant Fed survey. And the post-open LEI usually influences price action. Keep in mind that reaction to the pre-open reports tends to be repeated by the post-open reports. Also look for late-afternoon action to become inhibited ahead of the post-close earnings from GOOG.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
5-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2107.00 | 2101.00 |
| …would target | 2113.25 | 2107.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2100.25 | 2094.25 |
| …would target | 2094.25 | 2088.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Good effort, but no.
Overnight recovery attracts no new sponsorship.
Last night’s dip from 2095.50 down to 2085.75 had been recovered pre-open up to 2098.00. Its reaction down greeted the open at this morning’s 2096.25 bias-up signal, and extended down to 2092.50. Two more bounces held 2096.25.
Meanwhile, the bullish scenario’s 2093.75 pullback limit held two tests, too. It’s now being tested for a third time. It will probably break lower, since the bias-up signal is failing to trigger, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2088.25 bias-down signal.
That may be the bullish scenario. Having failed to gap up and extend higher in this no-traction setup, probing fresh highs this morning would have been doomed to failure. Delaying fresh highs until late-afternoon would escape that restraint. By the same token, probing fresh highs anyway could form a more durable top here.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
A lot of energy was expended in recovering the overnight dip high enough to indicate gapping up at the open. Yesterday morning’s high was only pierced, which exhibits a little pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Stopping pessimistically short of touching the outstanding “new Globex trend extreme” helps to preserve buying pressure, too. But now it is incumbent upon post-open sponsorship to resume the rally and extend it to fresh highs. Otherwise, this being the upper-end of the range and upside momentum failing, the morning would be vulnerable to trending back down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.