Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… CORRECTED CHARTROOM LINK
Sorry for the confusion — here’s the correct chaRTroom link:
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
The First Trade… Testing the highs.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday night’s “new Globex trend extreme” at 2098.50 had reacted down into Tuesday’s open, and then attacked to within 3 ticks at the morning’s high. Its intraday retest remains outstanding. The noon hour’s dip to 2085.00 in the same pattern we saw at Friday afternoon’s low, giving us very early anticipation for a reaction target of 2095.50 that was met at the close. The rally failed to gain traction for its efforts.
Overnight action’s new info…
With near-term buying pressure satisfied, the Globex open immediately began trending down. The reversal extended relentlessly into Europe’s opens before bottoming at 2086.00. A recovery eventually began, and it is now probing yesterday’s highs up to 2098.00.
If, then…
Having failed to gain traction for yesterday afternoon’s efforts, the rally can extend higher this morning only by gapping up. Retracing all of the overnight drop is encouraging, and opening above the “new Globex trend extreme” at 2098.50 would be more promising. But in either case, the opening 15 minutes must still extend to higher maintain momentum. Otherwise, probing under yesterday’s lows would not be surprising.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2098.50 would be likely to trigger the 2096.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2093.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2102.50 | 2096.25 |
| …would target | 2108.50 | 2102.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2094.50 | 2088.25 |
| …would target | 2089.00 | 2082.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Ranging sideways through Tuesday afternoon was biased-upward, probing higher gradually higher and not reacting down from relevant resistance. The minimum objective at 2085.25 was touched, and responded to, but not actually rejected.
It’s not upside traction — regardless of exiting the bias environment above the noon hour high. But nothing about it was distributive, so gapping up Wednesday morning to extend higher is possible. Recovering a pullback would be possible, too.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Waiting for intel on INTC.
Post-close earnings inhibiting trending.
The open’s gap up did extend higher, essentially immunizing the morning from reversing down. The extension peaked at 2097.75, which is 3 ticks below the overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” that requires eventual retest intraday.
Probing negative territory during the open would have trended down sharply for the day. But probing negative territory during the noon hour was easily absorbed, and recovered.
At least, the dip to 2085.00 has been retraced up to 2094.75. Potential for trending to fresh highs seems inhibited. The bias environment’s exit above the noon hour’s high wasn’t confirmed. Perhaps INTC’s post-close earnings news is weighing on the market.
There is nothing distributive about today’s session. Any immediately pullback would be likely to recover. Meanwhile, the rally remains more vulnerable to extending.