Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday back above the original 1.1345 sell signal extended intraday back into the high’s consolidation range. Filling the gap back up to 1.1375 could suffice for ending the bounce, or else a probe of fresh highs would become likely before tending to the outstanding “unfinished business below.”
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up to and through 1248.00 extended higher intraday to attack the outstanding gap at 1259.00. The rally’s origin was too optimistic to launch a credible rally, which is vulnerable to reacting down after filling the gap, or earlier back under 1248.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up above the 16.85 target probed it up to 17.10 intraday. Back under 16.70 would signal the target was holding, enabling a reversal down. Otherwise, a second consecutive higher close is needed to confirm a breakout.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The pullback’s 164-12/164-20 pullback target was tested fully but for 1 tick before bouncing back to 165-12. Closing above 165-20 would signal that the consolidation was ending, still needing to close above 166-16.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs extended intraday, filling the gap back to last Thursday’s last close within the high’s consolidation range. This is natural resistance, and Monday’s lower close did confirm Friday’s breakout, so no further backing-and-filling is needed before resuming the decline.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up above 1.95 Tuesday extended sharply higher intraday to probe prior highs and to retest the 2.08 target. This fulfills the “unfinished business above” of a third higher close after last week’s confirmed breakout. Extending the rally would next target 2.20-2.25.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 20, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Except for the ongoing quarterly earnings onslaught, the only high-profile or influential econ report is the late-morning Crude Oil report.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2099.25 | 2093.00 |
| …would target | 2108.00 | 2101.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2094.25 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2089.00 | 2082.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Keeping it real.
Post-open dip bounces off its pullback limit.
Any post-open strength intending to extend needed either to play it cool, or else be relentless. Either hesitate before actually testing the 2098.50 overnight high, or else maintain its recovery if probing above it.
An immediate surge that stopped pessimistically short of touching the overnight high would have been bullish — from a contrarian perspective. So, just imagine the bullishness of pessimism that actually sent price down.
Down, without breaking under relevant support. Without breaking support, despite testing it.
In fact, price action only weakened from the 2093.00 opening print. Remember the 2090.50-2091.00 pullback limit I had described the during the pre-market Tour? It was tested and retested. And its test held.
More so, its test reversed up to fresh post-open highs at 2097.75. Bias-up was renewed, next targeting 2097.00 and 2099.50. Still overlapping 2097.00 at 10:15 does warn of another dip before extending higher. But now holding the 2093.75 bias-up target as support would maintain the recovery.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The reaction down from 2098.50 has dipped a little deeper to test 2094.00. the open’s action should dictate this morning’s direction, if not also its degree of aggression.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.