Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
For all of Thursday’s twists and turns, it all took place in a relatively narrow range. Even narrower than Wednesday. And Wednesday had warned already that momentum was lapsing when buyers failed gain traction for their effort to produce a new trend high close. So, not gapping up Thursday prevented any rally from being durable.
That didn’t prevent probing fresh highs anyway. The pre-open high was reversed back into Wednesday’s range. Its intraday retest was reversed, too, after essentially fulfilling the next higher objective at 2082.25 to within 2-3 ticks.
So, no higher objectives were put into play. The only potential higher objective was essentially neutralized. And the afternoon was spent fluctuating narrowly around Wednesday’s high. To the degree that Thursday’s restraint or inhibition was due to expiration’s influence, expiration is likely to influence Friday’s price action.
And its influence Friday isn’t required to be restrained or inhibited. That should be interesting for the afternoon’s active bullish WedEX signal.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Steep, shallow slopes don’t last.
Repeatedly rejecting probes of higher highs.
Yesterday afternoon’s buyers gained no traction for their efforts. Extending the rally today before late-afternoon required gapping up. Failing that pre-open attempt doesn’t prevent later attempts; it just causes them to fail.
And they have. The noon hour’s probe above the 2079.50 pre-open high up to 2081.75 was reversed back under yesterday’s 2077.00 high to 2075.25. Its reaction up to 2078.75 was reversed even lower to 2074.50.
But now it’s late-afternoon as the bias environment has begun lapsing. The noon hour’s fresh high makes diving into the close unlikely, without already exiting the bias environment under the morning’s lows. But that’s a vulnerability anyway until recovering yesterday’s 2077.00 high.
Otherwise, recovering yesterday’s 2077.00 high should trend up aggressively to fresh session highs at 2082.25. Not entering the final hour already trending up sharply would remain vulnerable to retesting the overnight low.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending down Friday is confirming Thursday’s break under 1.1345. At least a third eventual lower close is required, probably at 1.1235-1.1255. Whether before or after fulfilling this objective, ranging at the highs should be retested.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s break under 1253.00 had filled the first gap outstanding back down to 1244.00, before extending down Thursday to within $1 of fulfilling the next lower gap back to 1224.50. Back above 1234.50 would signal that the drop would not extend to new lows.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s modest gap down didn’t extend as the session lows essentially remained within Wednesday’s range. A fresh high would resume the rally targeting 16.85.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The next lower pullback target at 164-12/164-20 was tested to within 1 tick Thursday morning, which would be close enough for a rally triggered above 165-20 to leave no unfinished business below.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday night’s dip under the 41.20 pullback limit touched the 40.90 sell signal before recovering ahead of Thursday’s open. Having tested support once, any lower before closing above 42.35 would be likely to collapse.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s open gapped down to test 1.99 support by 2-3 cents. That’s where last week’s failed confirmation had closed, so holding it is critical to quickly resuming this week’s breakout above 1.99 targeting 2.18.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 15, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open reports have no track record for influencing price action. If they do this time, then that’s very likely to be duplicated in reaction to the post-open Consumer Sentment. The noon hour’s Fed speaker should help to keep things lively ahead of the afternoon’s rig count.
Expiration
Bullish WedEX
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
12:30 PM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2088.75 | 2082.25 |
| …would target | 2092.75 | 2086.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2079.25 | 2073.00 |
| …would target | 2073.00 | 2066.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.