Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Weak buying, weaker selling.
Pre-open surge’s reversal is recovered.
The pre-open surge above yesterday’s highs to 2079.50 was a singular leg. Lacking complexity, it was not a “new Globex trend extreme,” so it does not require intraday retest.
It was retraced back under yesterday’s high so the 2076.50 opening print did not qualify as a gap up. Strong-handed buyers wouldn’t have allowed that. This encouraged selling the open, which then extended down to 2071.75.
The 2077.00 bias-up signal was tested post-open but didn’t trigger at 10:15, putting into play a test of the 2068.25 bias-down signal. Without printing a fresh low after 10:15, exiting the bias environment above the bias-up signal would invalidate the bias-down signal’s test.
In fact, a buy signal triggered above 2075.00, already touching 2076.50. Extending any higher should probe the bias-up signal by either several ticks or by several points. Otherwise, back under 2074.00 would signal the bounce had failed, and resume the post-open decline targeting a test of overnight lows.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight dip to its 2068.25-2069.00 limit had recovered back to unchanged at 2076.00. Another corrective dip post-open may be avoided now that the recovery has extended to fresh highs pre-open at 2079.50. We’ll still monitor for reversal potential from testing 2082.25, with room up to 2086.50. But a reversal from fresh highs would be less likely to recover again from 2068.25-2069.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Correcting weak strength is weak.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping up Wednesday quickly probed a fresh high, but it’s only reaction down was shallow and brief. Along with being in the orbit of “unfinished business above,” the pattern resolved differently from the three prior sessions’ gaps up. Extending higher satisfied those attractions with a new trend high close at 2076.00. Afternoon buyers gained no traction for their effort, but higher objectives were created.
Overnight action’s new info…
Room for a pullback down to 2068.25-2069.00 was almost fully utilized while sliding into and out of Europe’s opens. That has been recovered entirely back up to unchanged.
If, then…
So long as Thursday’s open doesn’t reject Wednesday’s close above 2073.00, extending the rally would next target 2082.25-2086.50, and potentially 2105.00. Yesterday’s post-open rally wasn’t especially strong, but that could have been enhanced by testing the minimum target overnight. Not already probing higher has missed a preservation tactic that many durable rallies use. So, rather than create unfinished business above to help ensure a later recovery, a post-open pullback testing 2068.25-2069.00 might be unavoidable. And if not brief, then a bigger reversal would start becoming likely.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2073.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2077.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2064.50 would be likely to trigger the 2068.25 bias-down signal.
Livestox Recording April 13, 2016
Tonight’s Livestox recording is below, and the stocks we addressed in order follow that. My latest picks for timing purposes are INQD and SRNA, AMMJ, TRTC, and possibly BLOZF.
Please don’t hesitate posting follow-up questions to this blog post’s thread on the IPCstocks.com site only.
PHOT
AERO (revisited later)
GRNH
CBIS
AGTK
CANV
OGRMF
CARA
GWPH
INSY
TAUG
SRNA
INQD
BLOZF
EDXC
RMHB
TRTC
CBDS
AMMJ
CANN
MSRT
SQ
FIT
AERO
FEYE
WYY
GBLX
MINE
VAPE
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2083.50 | 2077.00 |
| …would target | 2088.50 | 2082.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2074.50 | 2068.25 |
| …would target | 2068.75 | 2062.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.