Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
A “new Globex trend extreme” at 2071.50 had created the requirement for its eventual intraday retest. It was met in an attack on 2074.00 as Wednesday morning’s bias environment began lapsing.
A new trend high close two Fridays ago at 2065.00 had created the requirement for another eventual new trend high close. This was satisfied along the way to 2077.00.
The next higher objective above 2073.00 is 2082.25. Not a requirement, but an attraction. And it’s likely to be met — even if only overnight to establish another new Globex trend extreme, or after a gap down Thursday is recovered.
There is otherwise no unfinished business above, other than the ongoing rally likely to print new highs.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here. [SPECIAL NOTE: Charts will be unavailable between 6:30-8:30 ET tonight.]
Tonight’s Livestox link
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I’ve been emailed several stocks to include in our review. Please send me any others if you aren’t able to attend in real-time.
We’ll also review posts that were made to the prior site (not on IPCstocks.com). Those haven’t been pushed to me, and in fact, all of this service’s content should have been deleted from the original site. I’m told that will be fixed by this weekend, if not sooner.
See you soon!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The ongoing narrow trading range had tried breaking higher three times, and the first two times never reacted down under the range’s lows. The third breakout attempt also reacted back into the range, but then gapped down under it Wednesday to test the 1.1345 sell signal down to 1.1300. Confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Thursday would require an eventual third lower close. Otherwise, the breakout attempt will have held a test of support to make a rally leg even more likely, which would be signaled back above 1.1420.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
After only touching the 1253.00 pullback limit Tuesday, Wednesday’s open gapped under it and extended down enough to fill the first of two gaps below at 1244.00. The next lower gap at 1224.50 is in-play so long as 1253.00 isn’t recovered.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Diverging from Gold and breaking higher Wednesday could fulfill the minimum requirement for a third higher close after Monday’s confirmed breakout. But there is still potential for extending to 16.85.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing Tuesday under the 165-12 pullback limit that had held Monday has put into play a lower objective at 164-12/164-20, but Wednesday’s low came within only a quarter-point before bouncing back up to 166-00. Closing above 166-16 would signal that the corrective dip had ended.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already having met and held the 42.00-42.35 bounce target Tuesday, extending higher Wednesday was unlikely. Reaction to the morning’s EIA report left the upside target still attracting price to it, and now back under 41.20 would signal a downleg underway.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday above 1.95 and trending higher intraday, then surging into the close and firming further Wednesday, all matched last week’s temporary rally effort that was retraced back down under 2.00. Closing higher Wednesday instead confirms Tuesday’s rally and makes fresh highs likely.
Mid-day Update… No rush.
Hovering above prior highs would satisfy objectives.
The post-open dip to 2064.00 had been recovered to the open’s 2070.50 high. A break higher as the morning’s bias environment began lapsing extended to 2073.75. Dipping into the noon hour consolidated between 2068.00-2071.00, triggering no-bias.
The high’s RSIs aren’t entirely overbought to require its retest. But ranging narrowly sideways through the close isn’t as likely as printing fresh highs — targeting 2074.25-2075.00. Perhaps the Beige Book release at 2:00 would be a catalyst.
Dipping back down into the range could still fulfill the “unfinished business above” of a new trend high close. Preferably, that close would be above the opening range’s 2070.50 high, since the open’s range was overlapping the prior high.
The rally might extend even higher, but it wouldn’t be required. This isn’t a Friday, but exiting the afternoon’s bias environment above prior timing window’s highs (i.e. 2073.75) would be bullish. Reacting down from Beige Book would still be likelier to recover.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 14, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Two Fed speakers and a couple of high-profile reports are released pre-open. Only one has a track record for influencing price action, but being released simultaneously might increase their impact. The morning’s two Fed speakers are scheduled simultaneously, too. A shame they won’t cancel each other out.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
10:00 AM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET