Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2081.50 | 2075.00 |
| …would target | 2086.75 | 2080.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2074.75 | 2068.25 |
| …would target | 2069.50 | 2063.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Why this time may be different.
Slowness to extend gap up may be its strongest element.
I noted earlier the three immediate prior sessions. Their gaps up were ultimately reversed, but not before extending higher during the open and opening hour.
Today’s gap up to 2065.00-2065.75 quickly extended higher, probing the 2069.25 overnight high by more than 1 point during the first half-hour. Quickly extending higher didn’t translate into an uptrend, and the first hour really only ranged narrowly between 2067.25-2069.75.
And now a break lower is touching a fresh post-open low at 2064.00. Is the three-session streak turning into four?
Probably not. One obvious difference between today’s gap up reversal is its origin. The three immediate prior sessions had been contained within the range. Today’s high probed all prior highs first. That allows more room for selling without it damaging the chart.
As for that selling, its 2064.00 target was just touched. Whether or not it’s retested, the most bullish scenario at this stage of the pattern would keep pullbacks shallow. Filling the gap back down to yesterday’s close wouldn’t help to maintain the degree of optimism that upward momentum requires.
Back above 2966.75 (being tested now) would start to signal the pullback was done, and that momentum was beginning to reverse up. Having stopped pessimistically short of touching last week’s 2071.50 “new Globex trend extreme,” the open’s 2070.50 peak probably won’t be able to offer much resistance.
Otherwise, exiting the bias environment under its 2062.25 bias-up target would suggest that buyers are done. Especially with Crude Oil already having met and held its target yesterday, a downleg would unfold quickly.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The reaction down from 2069.25 has extended to 2063.50. Extending the rally this morning has little excuse to be delayed much past the open, or to back-and-fill any deeper first.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… New relative highs.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s opening surge held a test of the 2041.50 bias-up signal, putting into play an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. Reversing back up from within 3 points of the objective wasn’t surprising, but not reversing back down again did break the pattern. In fact, that required the ultra-rare occurrence of no-bias trending recovering the 2046.50 bias-up target when the morning’s bias environment lapsed. The afternoon extended higher to 2058.50 before a late dip to 2052.00. Buyers narrowly avoided gaining traction decisively.
Overnight action’s new info…
The rally has extended almost relentlessly. A 5-point pullback from 2063.00 into Europe’s opens offered , and now a 4-1/2 point pullback from 2069.25, have not damaged the trend. The 2066.75 high following the Employment Situation report is being probed. But last Sunday night’s 2071.50 “new Globex trend extreme” remains as yet untouched.
If, then…
Relentless overnight trending often reverses direction intraday, especially when greeting the open at a prior extreme or support/resistance. Breaking the obstacle through the open then often extends the overnight trending intraday. Gapping up above prior highs have only a brief window to attract post-open sponsorship. The immediate past three sessions each extended their gaps up for 45, 40 and then 15 minutes before reversing back down. There is little assurance of another gap up not repeating this pattern, especially being indicated to open at the renewed bias-up target. That little assurance is two pieces of “unfinished business above” — the 2071.50 new Globex trend extreme’s required retest, and an eventual new trend higher close for the current uptrend’s Friday high close.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2066.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2062.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal (it’s 2069.00 renewed bias-up target is being tested overnight).
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2066.75 | 2059.50 |
| …would target | 2069.50 | 2062.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2056.00 | 2048.75 |
| …would target | 2049.75 | 2042.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.