Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… It’s only getting started.
Post-open action tracks its pre-open description.
I highlighted two warnings during the pre-market Tour. First, that delaying a probe under 2034.00-2035.00 would lack sponsorship capable of trending down. Second, it’s time for a session with multiple intraday reversals.
While both characteristics have defined post-open action, there’s so much more than that.
The 2038.00 open first rallied to 2043.50 before reversing back under the morning’s 2041.50 bias-up signal. That first reversal had extended down to test 2034.00-2035.00 when “no-bias” triggered, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2029.75 bias-down signal.
2032.50 was touched when the next reversal came. First surging to test the 2041.50 bias-up signal by 1 point was retraced to attack 2034.00-2035.00. That allowed me plenty of time to point out that a fresh high would target 2044.50-2046.00.
In fact, the morning’s 2046.50 bias-up target was touched. Exiting the bias environment above it would invalidate whatever had been put into play by holding its 2041.50 signal through 10:15. Offsetting test of the bias-down signal? Moot. No-bias trending above the bias-up signal? Moot.
So, is everyone ready for another intraday reversal? The recovery is no more durable than the drop preceding it. Reacting sharply from one extreme to another is natural for a trading range. Not necessarily the extreme extremes, but internal extremes.
Now reacting much more often and more steeply is building up energy to break an extreme extreme. At least, to break it temporarily before reversing much more substantially in the opposite direction.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Posturing for sellers to retake control had to begin quickly upon retesting the 2043.00 overnight high. And it did. But 2034.00-2035.00 is only now being attacked, and not even to within 1 point. Trending down sharply through the open could still be credible for sellers to gain traction. Otherwise, 2034.00-2035.00 could launch a temporary bounce before sellers get their next opportunity when the afternoon bias environment lapses.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Overnight optimists.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Day-to-day reversals, intraday reversals, and now overnight reversals, each had begun appearing within the week-long range before Monday’s open. The latter’s appearance — Sunday night’s reversals — warned us not to trust Monday’s gap up. Our distrust proved well-placed, as the 2048.00 open’s extension to 1256.50 was reversed down to 2042.00 by noon. Its recovery to 1251.00 also proved untrustworthy as it was reversed down to 1233.50 into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Initially extending down to 2029.25. Its reaction extended higher to 2041.00 at Europe’s opens. Tumbling quickly back down to 2032.50 proved only temporary, recovering as quickly and then extending to a fresh high at 2043.00.
If, then…
Sellers had not gained traction before Monday’s last downleg broke lower during the final hour. Extending down immediately this morning would require gapping down to fresh lows. Retracing yesterday’s last downleg overnight doesn’t yet prevent gapping down to resume the decline. But it does put that decision to the intraday crowd, instead of it being forced on them by overnight sponsorship — and that makes the setup more reliable. It also presents the opportunity for a “session-long rally” setup. But if the decline is extending, then the overnight recovery should begin melting away now
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2044.50 would be likely to trigger the 2041.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2039.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s “ineffectual optimism” was neutralized, filling the gap from Friday’s 2040.75 close back down to the 2039.00 area. And lower, to 2033.50, despite sellers not having gained traction — the bias environment exit was above the noon hour’s high and the final hour’s entry was no lower. Extending the decline Tuesday morning must begin by gapping down, or else be likely to recover any lower low, if not also launch a recovery.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2048.75 | 2041.50 |
| …would target | 2053.75 | 2046.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2037.00 | 2029.75 |
| …would target | 2030.00 | 2022.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.