Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Apr 11, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Not econ reports are scheduled for Monday. Not just no high-profile or influential reports. None. It’s as good a day as any for the FOMC to call an “expedited” meeting.
FOMC expedited meeting
all day
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Rob Kaplan speaks
1:00 PM ET
Mid-day Update… Turn, turn, turn.
Week of reversals continues.
Maintaining the gap up above 2046.00 was rewarded by extending to fresh highs. Delaying that extension had made me suspicious of the ability to maintain fresh highs.
They weren’t.
Reacting down from 2054.25 through 2048.25 has extended down to 2040.00. The morning’s bias environment finished lapsing under the open’s range. The burden of proof has shifted back to buyers.
Fro the same reason that the week’s ongoing reversals that raised suspicions about the recovery, it should not increase confidence in its reversal. Entering the afternoon back above the 2046.00-2049.00 opening range could be squeezed higher through the close.
Otherwise, plenty of “unfinished business below” and other attractions can keep the afternoon occupied. Trending under Thursday’s 2026.00 low is still a possibility.
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2054.50 | 2047.00 |
| …would target | 2059.75 | 2052.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2046.00 | 2038.50 |
| …would target | 2040.00 | 2032.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… The hand-off.
Gap up finds new sponsorship.
The pre-open surge to 2053.00 had dipped to greet the open at 2049.00. Post-open action dipped a little deeper to 2046.00. Any lower would have triggered a sell signal. So, literally, as much selling pressure as could be expended without gaining traction was expended.
Literally? Numerically. Anyway…
The opening 15 minutes ranged narrowly sideways. This wasn’t bearish since the burden of proof was on sellers. In fact, the range resolved up to 2054.25.
Reacting down has violated the 2053.00 pullback limit down to 2049.75. Back above 2052.50 would signal that the rally had resumed, next targeting 2056.25-2057.00.
Meanwhile, the open’s delay in extending higher makes me suspicious about the recovery’s post-open sponsorship. Reacting down under 2048.75 would start to signal momentum reversing back down. It’s not a likely scenario, but there’s no assurance that this week of reversals has ended.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Consolidating the overnight rally at 2044.00-2048.50 was broken by a surge to 2053.00. Now the standard for maintaining the recovery isn’t yesterday’s last relative high at 2043.00, but yesterday’s 2045.50-2051.00 opening range. Its resolution through the open should trend in that direction through the morning — if not also into the afternoon.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.