Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2052.75 | 2045.25 |
| …would target | 2057.75 | 2050.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2042.00 | 2034.75 |
| …would target | 2034.50 | 2027.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s reversal down could have been a lot more destructive. Exiting Friday afternoon’s bias environment beyond all other intraday timing window extremes tends to extend in that direction through the close.
But Friday afternoon’s bias environment was AT the 2038.00 prior extremes. Even the 3:10-3:20 timing window’s downward bias avoided actually trending down under 2034.00. Selling pressure was expended, but didn’t gain traction.
Reacting up to 2040.75 into the close also didn’t gain traction. Either end of the week-long range could be tested next. And either end could be probed without extending in that direction. Several specific parameters will help to signal which attraction is dominant, and I’ll describe them at this weekend’s Saturday Review.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
[I’ll email the Saturday Review link overnight.]
Pre-close View… The moment they’ve been “weighting” for.
Morning’s trapped longs now adding downward pressure.
The noon hour’s low touched this afternoon’s 2038.50 bias-down signal and bounced 5 points to almost 2044.00.
Attacking and retesting 2038.50 through the bias timing window still didn’t trigger bias-down. So, the bias environment bounced 8 points to test 2046.00.
But the bias environment’s exit was slipping back into the noon hour’s range under 2044.00. And the final hour’s entry had returned back to the 2038.00 low.
This being a Friday afternoon, exiting the afternoon’s bias environment beyond all prior timing window extremes would trend in that direction through the close. I’m giving the same credibility to probing fresh session lows through the 3:10-3:20 timing window (now being probed down to 2036.00).
Probing any lower at this stage should probe a lot lower, initially targeting 2032.50 and potentially trending down sharply into the close. Back above 2040.75 would start to suggest that buyers have regained control.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Is time up for a top? Despite still holding 1.1435 resistance all week, the 1.1345 sell signal has yet to break lower. Wednesday night’s brief probe above 1.1435 should have been rejected by now. Without already rallying Monday morning, the potential for reversing down will become much greater.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1234.50 pullback target was tested Thursday night by a blop-down that touched 1231.00. Although likely to resolve down, the corrective bounce targeting 1255.00 and possibly higher should now become obvious if valid.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still overlapping the 15.25 bounce limit keeps alive the potential for resolving the upward channel by breaking down to fresh lows at 14.70. But overlapping the bounce limit up to Thursday’s 15.36 high does threaten to violate it.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Friday to and through 166-19 from Thursday’s recovery high close now creates an attraction above that should enable recovering from a corrective dip down to 165-12/165-20.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Rallying sharply overnight from 38.25 through 39.05 greeted Friday’s open at 39.55, whose recovery would reinstate the attraction above to 42.00-42.35. Otherwise, having tested 39.55, closing back under 39.05 would signal the bounce had failed and begin reversing momentum back down.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Initially extending Thursday’s recovery into Friday’s open, the morning’s reaction down to test 1.99 support keeps alive the upward momentum, although a second consecutive higher close would be more bullish.