Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight surge’s consolidation back to 2046.00 support has persisted. Its 2051.50 resistance is being retested pre-open. Exiting the open beyond either end of the 2045.50-2049.00 range is likely to extend in that direction.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Reversal city.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up had extended a little higher post-open, but only enough to retest the 2053.00 pre-open high by 5 ticks. Weakening indications and a week of reversals suggested the opening strength wasn’t durable. In fact, the balance of the session trended back down. A very late low finally filled the gap back to Thursday’s 2035.00 close by 5 ticks, then bounced to close at 2041.00-2042.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
After bleeding into intraday action Friday, last week’s reversals have now bled into overnight action. Sunday night’s choppy open eventually resolved down to retest Friday’s low and attack 2033.00. Bouncing to 2041.00-2042.00 resolved down again into and out of Europe’s opens. Retesting 2033.00 reacted back up quickly, producing a surge to 2051.50. Sideways ranging from there has been supported by 2046.00.
If, then…
Friday’s intraday decline had neutralized the attraction below back to Thursday’s close. Chipping away at the support of the week-long range’s lower-end stopped short of actually breaking support, as the test held through the close. But any break lower — especially through Monday’s open — would be credible for launching a deeper correction. By the same token, almost any firm open would be credible for returning back to the range’s highs, potentially avoiding a deeper correction to launch a breakout to new highs. The overnight drop had suggested initially that the break lower was coming. But the surge’s recovery is suggesting the latter scenario. We might not know until the open has either maintained or rejected a recovery above Thursday and Friday’s opening ranges, which is essentially 2045.50-2049.00.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2049.75 would be likely to trigger the 2045.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2044.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2053.50 would be likely also to recover the 2050.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.
The Universe, week of April 11, 2016…
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Perhaps we finally got news that can be considered a catalyst for the recent sector improvement. That’s the upcoming decision whether to re-schedule cannabis at a Federal level. Meanwhile, the sector didn’t extend that recent improvement.
Last week’s highlighted issues did alright anyway, with a double among them (CANN). I missed GRNH because of a questionable formation that has since resolved favorably. One other issue to highlight growing momentum this week is BLOZF. An honorable mention goes to INQD, which doesn’t have enough history for its current qualification to be reliable as it would if observed in any other issue.
Join us Wednesday evening at 7:00pm ET to review the sector and your own chart analysis requests. We’ll select several for inclusion in the model portfolio, which we’ll launch officially the next day. I’ll send a reminder…
| Marijuana Stock Universe for April 11, 2016 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 32 | 40.51% |
| trends* | # flat: | 28 | 35.44% |
| # down: | 19 | 24.05% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| AERO | 1.600 | 2.270 | up |
| AGTK | 0.002 | 0.005 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.085 | 0.160 | flat |
| ARNA | 1.800 | 2.200 | up |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | flat |
| BLOZF | 0.160 | 0.220 | up |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.030 | flat |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.031 | up |
| BTFL | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| CANL | 0.053 | 0.290 | flat |
| CANN | 0.880 | 1.300 | up |
| CANV | 0.290 | 0.550 | up |
| CARA | 5.450 | 7.700 | flat |
| CBDS | 1.850 | 3.000 | up |
| CBIS | 0.017 | 0.024 | up |
| CGRW | 0.760 | 0.920 | up |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.317 | 0.590 | up |
| DEWM | 0.003 | 0.006 | up |
| DIGP | 0.215 | 0.290 | up |
| EAPH | 0.004 | 0.009 | up |
| EDXC | 0.025 | 0.042 | up |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | up |
| ENDO | 0.012 | 0.022 | up |
| ENRT | 0.005 | 0.014 | flat |
| ERBB | 0.001 | 0.003 | flat |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | up |
| FITX | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| FULL | 2.400 | 2.800 | up |
| GBLX | 0.175 | 0.280 | flat |
| GRNH | 0.045 | 0.069 | up |
| GWPH | 71.500 | 87.000 | up |
| HEMP | 0.036 | 0.070 | up |
| IMLFF | 0.040 | 0.115 | down |
| INQD | n/a | n/a | flat |
| INSY | 14.950 | 21.250 | down |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | flat |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | down |
| LXRP | 0.100 | 0.220 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.029 | 0.052 | up |
| MDBX | 0.006 | 0.051 | down |
| MDRM | 0.040 | 0.108 | up |
| MINE | 0.019 | 0.040 | flat |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | flat |
| MJNA | 0.028 | 0.044 | flat |
| MNTR | 0.360 | 0.625 | up |
| MSRT | 0.830 | 1.410 | up |
| MYEC | 0.000 | 1.000 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | up |
| NMUS | 0.710 | 1.880 | down |
| NTRR | 1.120 | 1.800 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.435 | 0.630 | flat |
| OXIS | 0.200 | 1.640 | flat |
| PHOT | 0.020 | 0.040 | flat |
| PLPL | 0.063 | 0.108 | flat |
| PMCB | 0.043 | 0.074 | down |
| PNTV | 0.002 | 0.004 | up |
| PZOO | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RMHB | 0.028 | 0.051 | flat |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.006 | 0.014 | flat |
| SPRWF | 0.225 | 0.375 | up |
| SRNA | 0.074 | 0.112 | flat |
| STEV | 0.015 | 0.037 | down |
| TAUG | 0.004 | 0.008 | up |
| TRTC | 0.280 | 0.490 | up |
| TURV | 0.463 | 0.770 | flat |
| TWMJF | 1.800 | 2.400 | flat |
| UPOT | 0.010 | 0.050 | flat |
| VAPE | 0.003 | 0.023 | up |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.020 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.025 | 0.048 | up |
| VPCO | 0.000 | 0.095 | down |
| WOGI | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XXII | 0.690 | 1.005 | down |
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link
S&Ps start the new week at 6pm ET. Monitor trading overnight in the chaRTroom by CLICKING HERE.
I’ll be checking in later, and will annotate the chart if anything interesting develops.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/9/16) … Still waiting for one more shoe.
The ongoing trading range keeps alive potential for a deeper dip before resuming the rally. During this weekend’s Saturday Review, we discussed how to know determine whether that dip is underway, or being rejected, and the extent that each could reach.
Sponsorship for those competing paths will be well fed by a specially scheduled FOMC meeting and quarterly earnings. Knowing the context will help to make faster and more reasoned decisions in real-time.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
POT, CF, HOV, KO, MCD, HTM, CACC, FCX, X, HOG, SIVB, CRUS, FB, SBUX
04/09/2016 09:30:38 David B: Good Morning
04/09/2016 09:30:40 sm: audio good
04/09/2016 09:41:50 MK: 201/22 is prior lows?
04/09/2016 09:41:56 MK: 21/22 is prior lows no?
04/09/2016 09:55:17 MK: POT & CF
04/09/2016 09:55:25 MK: HTM
04/09/2016 09:55:35 MK: CACC
04/09/2016 09:55:37 MK: HOG
04/09/2016 09:55:40 MK: SIVB
04/09/2016 09:55:46 MK: CRUS
04/09/2016 09:55:49 MK: FB
04/09/2016 09:57:23 David B: any thoughts on the fed emergency meeting effecting stocks?
04/09/2016 09:59:14 David B: Are earnings already discounted in the market and earnings beats will reflect stocks to rally?
04/09/2016 10:07:49 MK: re:POT is that too far of a pullback
04/09/2016 10:07:56 MK: i’m long right around 16
04/09/2016 10:08:08 MK: with a close back under lows
04/09/2016 10:11:13 MK: yup
04/09/2016 10:11:14 MK: nevermind
04/09/2016 10:11:45 Josey: HOV
04/09/2016 10:14:22 Josey: long
04/09/2016 10:15:03 David B: KO,MCD
04/09/2016 10:18:30 MK: I feel ike KO is the ultimate CYA stock
04/09/2016 10:22:03 David B: FCX,X
04/09/2016 10:25:14 MK: can i press this?
04/09/2016 10:25:25 MK: ok
04/09/2016 10:25:28 MK: i’ll press on monday
04/09/2016 10:25:33 MK: i’m good with that
04/09/2016 10:26:53 MK: SBUX
04/09/2016 10:33:21 MK: sweeet
04/09/2016 10:33:23 MK: go lower
04/09/2016 10:34:30 MK: thats fine
04/09/2016 10:37:13 David B: with the fed,earnings,and options expiration it might be difficult to say which way the trend is going?
04/09/2016 10:44:25 David B: never know which the market will focus on?
04/09/2016 10:47:53 Josey: earning have been lowered so much that I would think we rally
04/09/2016 10:50:10 Josey: Thank you!
04/09/2016 10:50:19 David B: thanks