Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/2/16) …
That’s a lovely new trend high close, you have there. It would be a shame if something were to happen to it. Actually, probably not. Pulling back immediately Monday would likely be only a temporary correction, and bullish. That was explained along with other aspects of the current and future market during this weekend’s Saturday Review.
Also, the following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
UTX, NFLX, AAPL, SQ, GPRO, GIS, HOG, USO
04/02/2016 09:29:05 sm: audio is good
04/02/2016 09:29:10 Mark Glezer: gm
04/02/2016 09:29:14 Mark Glezer: good
04/02/2016 09:29:14 David B: Good Morning
04/02/2016 09:50:43 sm: ‘New highs’ since the beginning of the controlling downleg, or new highs above the 2015 topping range?
04/02/2016 09:52:19 sm: — answered. thx
04/02/2016 09:54:53 David B: do you think the fed gave the market a gift basically taking a rate hike off the table and risk on its back on?
04/02/2016 09:58:25 David B: markets are driven by earnings and they are declining so its all about what the fed is doing is keeping the market from selling off?
04/02/2016 10:01:49 Mark Glezer: when do u expect the new all time high?
04/02/2016 10:03:54 David B: can you look at the dollar is it starting to break down
04/02/2016 10:04:31 David B: NFLX,AAPL
04/02/2016 10:08:16 Josey: SQ, GPRO, USO
04/02/2016 10:10:11 sm: GIS, HOG
04/02/2016 10:22:25 Mark Glezer: thx
04/02/2016 10:22:51 sm: thx
04/02/2016 10:23:11 David B: thanks
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2076.50 | 2068.25 |
| …would target | 2081.00 | 2072.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2067.75 | 2059.50 |
| …would target | 2061.25 | 2053.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. This week planted seeds for the coming week, if not weeks, which we’ll discuss along with strategies for trading the patterns.
After discussing the bigger picture, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
New trend high closes on Friday all but ensure another eventual higher close before becoming vulnerable to a durable downtrend. It doesn’t prevent an immediate pullback, but the pullback would likely be temporary.
Friday’s new trend high close did start to fulfill the next higher upside objective at 2067.00-2068.00 which would have been in-play Wednesday afternoon had its rally resumed.
Friday’s new trend high close was overlapping Wednesday’s prior high enough not to qualify as a breakout. That would have been bullish separately had Monday closed higher. But now closing higher Monday wouldn’t be any more bullish.
2056.00 was recovered through a close, which starts to suggest a new rally leg underway — not simply a single higher close. This would be undermined by only ranging Monday around last week’s highs.
Meanwhile, 2048.75 is “unfinished business below.” It must be retested for having been Friday morning’s bias-down signal, which was triggered late. But its retest is not required on any particular timetable.
I’ll send the link overnight to this weekend’s Saturday Review, which begins at 9:30am ET.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Pre-close View… Safety zone.
Entering final hour above all prior highs.
The afternoon bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30, and finishes upon entering the final hour. A trending session that probes fresh extremes during the afternoon bias environment can marginalize counter-trend sponsorship by maintaining its position.
Today, that means exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s 2057.25 high has marginalized sellers. The rally need not extend but it probably won’t reverse down. It had extended already to 2062.75, so there is room for noise below.
Exiting the bias environment back within a prior timing window’s range would open the door to a reversal. Reversing wouldn’t be required, but it would be unlikely otherwise.
None of which prevents an interim dip, anyway. Ranging narrowly at 2062.75 for 45 minutes doesn’t make a dip any likelier, except that it suggests upside momentum may be in trouble.
Back under 2059.75 would be credible for a dip targeting 2056.00 with potential to 2051.00. It would likely be both temporary and brief, and recovered completely before the close. Meanwhile, the greater vulnerability remains to the upside.