Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up a little ahead of Friday’s payrolls report was retraced back into Thursday’s range. Blipping-up filled the open’s gap before reversing down more substantially. Reacting back up never fully recovered, holding 1.1435 resistance. Closing under 1.1345 would signal momentum reversing down.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s dip had already retested the upper-end of 1218.00-1224.50 support. Its test already produced a rally, back to prior highs,. There was no bullish reason to revisit it, so revisiting it Friday extended down to the range’s lower-end, and through it to attack 1210.00. Closing back above its upper-would still be bullish — in fact, a bounce was testing 1224.50 as resistance before the close. But closing under 1218.00 would signal a new downleg underway targeting 1188.50-1192.50.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing Thursday above 15.38-15.44 without trending up intraday had made its breakout all the more dependent on being confirmed by a second consecutive higher close. The alternative would target 14.70. It was attacked to within a dime after gapping down Friday, and remains in-play so long as 15.25 is not recovered.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm Thursday’s breakout above 164-10, next targeting 165-20, and then 168-00.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Delaying a recovery from retesting the 38.25 prior low has opened the door to triggering a donwleg under 36.95 targeting 34.00 and 32.00. Having tested 36.95 intraday Friday, only closing above 38.25 would reject the new downside risk, and closing above 39.05 would target a retest of 42.00-42.35.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s dip back down to 1.93 wasn’t absorbed immediately and was still being tested throughout Friday morning. It must hold to maintain the bullish scenario next targeting 2.07 and higher.
Mid-day Update… Morning-long.
Substantial rally fulfills its upside.
Recovering 2038.50 after twice probing fresh lows post-open had suggested a substantial morning-long rally would develop. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias is likely to extend into the afternoon.
The morning’s late bias-down signal contradicted the bullish scenario. But the requirement to retest this morning’s 2048.75 bias-down signal can become “unfinished business below.” And it has.
Meanwhile, a noon hour pullback fulfilled its minimum objective at 2050.50. Its recovery has extended to fresh session highs at 2058.50 and triggered late bias-up. The 2061.25 bias-up target is in-play.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Apr 4, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Mid-morning is an unusual time for a Fed speaker, especially on a Monday, so that might have extra influence on price action. Otherwise, it’s Monday’s only relevant econ report.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
10:15 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2064.25 | 2056.00 |
| …would target | 2067.50 | 2061.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2056.25 | 2048.00 |
| …would target | 2050.75 | 2042.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bias-down, not out.
Substantial recovery gets ahead of itself.
Opening at 2039.25 and probing fresh lows created a bottoming pattern that was sealed upon recovering 2038.50. Its reward was expected to be a substantial morning-long rally.
We got the substantial part already, but not yet the morning-long.
The 20498.75 bias-down signal was touched by 10:15. Actually, within 3 minutes of 10:15, invoking the grace period. It was not recovered through 10:30, triggering late bias-down.
Late bias-down, or not, the 2038.50 buy signal’s latest pullback limit held its test to avoid being violated. Another surge extended the recovery to 2053.50.
Two substantial rallies do not equate to morning-long.
Being a bias-down environment, the 2048.75 bias-down signal should define the range’s upper-end. This requires its retest. Triggering bias-down had put into play a retest of the 2042.50 bias-down target. So, 2048.75 need not hold as support.
After at least testing 2048.75, this being only a late bias-down environment, the rally could still resume. Meanwhile, a deeper pullback would be more credible.