Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2060.25 | 2051.00 |
| …would target | 2065.25 | 2056.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2050.75 | 2041.50 |
| …would target | 2044.00 | 2034.75 |
| Signal status: RENEWED BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
1-minute and 3-minute RSIs didn’t actually diverge negatively into the 2047.50 high. With the 1-minute, RSI had not been overbought since much earlier and a little lower. As for 3-minute, RSI barely left overbought territory.
All of this developed upon touching last Tuesday’s 2047.50 actual high. Just touching last Monday’s 2044.50 pivotal high had required testing 2047.50. Already neutralizing the higher attraction tends to undermine the upside momentum.
All of this also developed while trending to fresh session highs through the 3:10-3:20 timing window. Barely. It was a net total of 2 ticks, or 6 ticks from high to low. The timing would complement the bias environment exit to reflect buyers gaining traction. Does 2-6 ticks deserve a benefit of the doubt for rewarding buyers with a Wednesday morning rally?
Extending higher would next target 2051.00 and potentially 2056.25. Nothing requires maintaining a higher high. But Tuesday morning’s probe under support through the opening windows does suggest a retest of its low.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Relentless.
Noon hour high’s retest hardly hesitates.
Actually, the noon hour high’s retest did react down briefly at its 2041.50 target. But that took only enough time to touch the 2040.25 pullback limit. Soon, the rally was extending up to 2046.25.
Meanwhile, last Monday’s 2044.50 high was touched. That’s called the “pivotal high,” being the high prior to last Tuesday’s 2047.50 actual high. Having probed under their interim low, recovering to touch the pivotal high all but requires revisiting the actual high.
The actual high isn’t always revisited immediately. Reacting down first is likely to recover. Today’s test doesn’t seem interested in more than a brief pause, as fresh highs are now within 3 ticks of 2047.50.
More important for tomorrow is whether the 3:10-3:20 timing window maintains its probe of fresh session highs. That would complement the bias environment exit having been above the noon hour’s high, gaining traction for extending higher tomorrow morning. Fresh highs could be probed anyway, but probably not maintained.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday initially began retracing Monday’s firming — at least, correcting back towards last week’s lows. Reaction to Yellen’s noon hour comments triggered a surge attacking the 1.1335 attraction above. That’s now likely to be tested prior to a deeper pullback first, so also likely to be forming a top.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday morning’s probe above 1223.00 resistance touched 1229.00 before correcting back under 1223.00. The next break above 1223.00 on Yellen’s comments surged to test the 1240.00 area. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm the pullback had ended and the rally had resumed. No higher close would target at least a retest of 1223.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing well under 15.25 Tuesday morning was recovered in reaction to Yellen’s comments. Closing above Monday’s 15.88 high would have been more credible. But closing under 15.25 Wednesday would be unlikely to pause again before probing under 14.90 or lower.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Testing 163-16 again finally broke higher, aided by Yellen’s comments. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm a bottom had formed, just ahead of Friday’s payrolls report. Closing back under 163-16 would suggest otherwise, but fresh lows still aren’t in-play without also closing under 162-07.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s attack on 38.00 was probed under 38.00 Tuesday, after Sunday night’s probe above 39.55 failed into Monday’s open. Closing back above 39.55 would still target 42.00-42.35 where a more durable top could form.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 1.85 challenge may be resolving higher as Tuesday’s probe above it extended higher intraday. A second consecutive higher close on Wednesday would confirm the 1.99 target is in-play.
Mid-day Update… Two bounces do not a trend make.
Yellen reaction triggers extra surge.
This morning’s bias environment exit absorbed a test of 2027.25. It later served as the inflection point to a 7-point surge triggered by Fed Chair Yellen’s remarks. That extended during the noon hour to touch Sunday night’s 2039.75 high.
12-points into positive territory. Quite an improvement from this morning’s 9-point probe into negative territory.
But negative territory and 2027.25 weren’t recovered until after the bias environment had lapsed. Extending higher later is likely to be retraced entirely.
The noon hour’s reaction down from 2039.75 touched this afternoon’s 2033.50 bias-up target as support. A buy signal was triggered back above 2036.25 targeting the high’s retest up to 2041.50. Back under 2033.50 would target 2029.50, and potentially lower.