Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Mar 30, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s ADP report is the best last chance to gauge sentiment ahead of Friday’s payrolls report. Influential reports keep coming, with the weekly EIA report and an afternoon Fed speaker.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
1:00 PM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2038.00 | 2028.50 |
| …would target | 2042.75 | 2033.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2031.00 | 2021.75 |
| …would target | 2024.75 | 2015.25 |
| Signal status:BIAS-UP, BIAS–UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range. — A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. — “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Ill-fated bounce, again.
Post-open dip tries recovering too little, too late.
The pre-open dip to 2020.75 was itself probed post-open down to 2019.25. Yesterday morning’s 2023.00-2023.00 lows held as resistance through the opening 15 minutes of volatility.
Rather than extend down, a bounce has attacked 2027.00. Still overlapping the 2024.50 bias-down signal at both 10:15 and 10:30 has triggered noN-bias — not a bias-down, and not a no-bias, so there is no requirement to fulfill any bias parameter.
The pattern is similar to yesterday. Not the formation, which is clearly different. But the template of remaining under a relevant level through a relevant timing window, and then trying to recover.
Like the rally from yesterday’s lows, this morning’s recovery attempt should be retraced entirely. Unlike yesterday’s rally — so long as the bias environment isn’t exited above 2027.25 — the failure should not be so delayed. The initial attraction below is 2020.75, and then essentially 2009.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Fresh lows down to 2020.75 are consolidating pre-open around yesterday morning’s 2022.00-2023.00 lows. The resolution to their post-open test would establish direction for the balance of the morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Sellers starting early.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s rally hadn’t skipped a beat since Thursday’s pre-Easter weekend close, extending the intraday rally to attack 2040.00. That was retraced entirely before Monday’s open, which the morning extended back down to 2022.00, retracing 61.8% of the rally from Thursday morning’s 2012.00 low. No relevant supports were broken, but sellers weren’t trapped. Bouncing to 2034.00 during the afternoon’s no-bias environment was retraced to 2027.00, closing back under Thursday’s highs.
Overnight action’s new info…
Relatively narrow choppy ranging back to 2033.50 suddenly launched a drop down to 2023.50. It might be in reaction to a plane hijacking, which it being reported as a domestic dispute. RSIs diverged into the low, but the drop seems pretty slow retracing since learning the hijacking is confined.
If, then…
With no unfinished business above, the open has little excuse to further delay resuming the pullback begun off of last week’s highs. A “session-long decline” setup isn’t possible, but gapping down under yesterday morning’s lows would likely set a bearish tone for the day. By the same token, threatening to gap down, but avoiding it anyway, should at least retest Sunday night’s high.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2027.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2024.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2022.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.