Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… A lot to digest.
Overnight rally rejected, but not reversed.
Despite surging overnight to attack 2040.00. Despite rallying overnight to the 2035.25 bias-up target. Despite having gapped up through Thursday’s 2030.25 post-close high. Despite all of that upside, post-open action has been about selling.
A blip-down to 2025.25 reacted up to attack 2030.00. But the 2028.25 bias-up signal was still being overlapped both at 10:15 and at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias. No retest of the bias-up target is in-play. Nor is an offsetting test of the bias-down signal required.
Although most noN-bias environments range narrowly around the bias signal, this morning’s has broken to fresh lows at 2023.25. Already having rejected the overnight follow-through, probing deeper into negative territory can confirm the only remaining setup — that Thursday’s rally was weak-handed, requiring complete retracement.
Retesting Thursday’s 2012.00-2015.00 lows has room for noise down to 2009.00 before putting into play 1980.00. Back above 2031.00 would start to suggest the drop had run its course.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The reaction down from overnight highs has extended as low as 2031.75 ahead of this morning’s open. Sunday night’s 2030.25 open is dangerously close, and while not an actual signal, not holding it through the open would help to confirm the bounce since Thursday’s gap down had ended.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Excess excessive optimism.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s slide had broken the back of a choppy three-day range, retracing back down to the original 2025.25 Belgium-reaction low. Extending down relentlessly overnight had greeted Friday’s open at 2015.00. The open attacked 2012.00 and then reversed the trend back up. All of the overnight drop was retraced back to 2030.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open remained well above Friday’s 2027.00 cash session close, and soon extended Friday’s recovery up to 2035.50. Surging at Europe’s opens soon attacked 2040.00. That has been retraced back down to 2033.00, still in positive territory, testing a 61.8% retracement of the overnight rally.
If, then…
If Friday’s low-volume, pre-holiday weekend rally was sponsored by weak hands, then its entire leg should be retraced. Friday’s gap down should be retraced eventually back to its open. No “unfinished business above” remains outstanding to justify delaying the decline’s resumption. So, delaying the decline’s resumption much past the open would suggest the decline won’t resume this morning.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2031.00 would be likely to trigger the 2028.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2025.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2037.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2035.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link
Pardon me for interrupting your Easter weekend. I just thought you’d like to know the chaRTroom will soon open to monitor overnight Globex trading.
Enter the room by CLICKING HERE.
I’ll be checking in later, and will annotate the chart if anything interesting develops.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2037.50 | 2028.25 |
| …would target | 2044.50 | 2035.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2032.00 | 2022.75 |
| …would target | 2025.75 | 2016.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.