Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2044.00 | 2034.50 |
| …would target | 2049.00 | 2039.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2034.50 | 2025.25 |
| …would target | 2028.75 | 2019.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
This being Wednesday before a 3-day holiday weekend, trending already underway is difficult to stop, let alone to reverse, before next week. This suggests that Tuesday and Wednesday’s lows are now resistance.
Thursday’s open always has a role to play by proxy. Gapping up above 2034.50 would be credible for extending back to the range’s upper-end. Otherwise, the drop’s potential objective is back down to 2009.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… There they go.
Range breaking lower into bias environment exit.
Wednesday afternoon’s bias environment began lapsing as price was dipping from its 2036.00 upper-end down to 2032.00. Selling soon accelerated down to 2026.50.
Being Wednesday afternoon ahead of a 3-day holiday weekend, like the expiration indicator, downtrending into the weekend is now likely. That is, assuming the break is maintained through the close, and also assuming Thursday’s open doesn’t recover immediately and reject Wednesday afternoon’s break.
The bias environment exit was still within the noon hour’s range. The final hour’s entry being under the bias environment’s low, trending down to fresh lows through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would confirm sellers gained traction.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down again Wednesday met the minimum objective at 1.1190, still having potential for extending down to 1.1150 before retesting last week’s highs.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing overnight to 1262.00 didn’t invalidate the bearish pattern which was confirmed by closing Tuesday under 1250.20. Extending down sharply overnight greeted Wednesday’s open at the minimum 1223.00 objective, which was probed during the morning to briefly test the lower target at 1216.50 before bouncing back up to 1223.00. A bottom may now form, but an immediate recovery attempt would be suspicious.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down and extending lower intraday Wednesday fulfilled the minimum objective at 15.25. No lower objective is required, although not recovering through Thursday morning would next likely probe under 15.00.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Completely retracing Tuesday’s gap up to and through the 162-07 bounce limit didn’t prevent rallying Wednesday back through the 162-07 bounce limit and the gap back to Monday’s 163-05 by several ticks. Closing back under 162-07 would resume the decline’s momentum, but meanwhile this bounce has potential to 163-16 before either resuming the decline or launching a massive rally.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down to and through recent lows Wednesday extended down through the morning to attack 40.00, likely heading to a test of “lower prior highs” at 39,.50 before filling last Friday’s opening gap at 42.00-42.35.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming immediately above 1.85 Wednesday still didn’t extend higher intraday as another slight dip developed. That pullback limit has failed to hold, but neither has it launched a new downleg, so a recovery remains possible.
Mid-day Update… On the cusp.
Noon hour entered at lows.
SPECIAL NOTE: MARKET WRAP WILL BEGIN AT 3:30PM ET, AND I’LL BE AWAY FROM THE SCREENS BY THE CLOSE.
This morning’s noN-bias environment was exited at its 2029.25 bias-down target. The target was never in-play, but it is nevertheless support. And its test has reacted up to test this morning’s 2034.50 bias-down signal by 2-3 ticks.
It is still resistance, and this is now the noon hour.
This is the lower-end of a multi-session range, the relatively narrow range that has been suggesting the rally may be done. Buyers are clearly complacent, but pushing price to the range’s lower-end doesn’t yet prove sellers are retaking control.
There’s room up to this afternoon’s 2039.00 bias-up signal before suggesting sellers aren’t retaking control. This being Wednesday afternoon ahead of a 3-day holiday weekend, not yet breaking the range today would be unlikely to break the range before Monday — making this the range’s lower-end. A break lower would essentially target 2009.00.