Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 24, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Other than it being in NYC, I’m unable to find more information like the timing of Bullard’s speech. But he has a track record for influencing price action. So does Durable Goods, which is released pre-open
*James Bullard Speaks
8:15 AM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2048.50 | 2039.00 |
| …would target | 2054.25 | 2045.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2038.50 | 2029.25 |
| …would target | 2032.50 | 2023.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Now waiting for third shoe to drop.
Not maintaining yesterday’s recovery is now followed by retracing its origin.
The pre-open slide greeted the open at 2036.50 and then extended further down to 2031.75. Consolidating around the 2034.50 bias-down signal for a half-hour didn’t imply any greater strength there. A better example would have been to quickly launch a rally from there, instead of chipping away at its support.
But 2034.50 was still being overlapped at 10:15 to invoke the grace period.
An initially favorable knee-jerk reaction to the EIA Crude Oil data triggered a blip-up to 2038.50. It blapped-down by 10:30 to isolate itself as only a knee-jerk reaction. But 2034.50 was still being overlapped at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias.
Being noN-bias, an offsetting test of the bias-up signal is not in-play, and neither is a test of the bias-down target. The bias-down signal isn’t required to define the range’s lower-end. That said, price is often inhibited from trending away from the bias-down signal throughout the noN-bias environment, but trending either way away from it would still be credible because it isn’t prohibited. Trending away from the bias-down signal is often retraced.
Regardless, nothing about the opening action is bullish. And it’s just bearish enough to maintain the bearish scenario.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
I had not noted any Fed speakers today, but apparently Bullard has snuck in to make comments. And they’re not helping the rally to resume. But they’re helping our bearish scenario, as the retest of yesterday’s 2045.00-2045.75 target area is now being reversed, aggressively, to attack this morning’s 2034.50 bias-down signal.
Holding the bias-down signal’s test would put into play an offsetting test of this morning’s bias-up signal — at 2045.50, essentially the overnight high. Triggering bias-down would suggest that sellers are exploiting their strengths before their hesitation is exploited by buyers.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… That which doesn’t kill it…?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday afternoon’s action was essentially the inverse of the morning’s attempt to break lower from the two-day range. Recovering and reversing probe under the range which had been triggered by the Brussels terrorists attacks, had extended through the range’s upper-end. But that was retraced and extended back into the range. The afternoon’s high had fulfilled an objective created by the morning’s dip, and the closing dip had fulfilled an objective created by the afternoon’s recovery. No traction was gained and no unfinished business was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Actually, the late dip had only essentially fulfilled its objective to within 2 ticks — and its minimum objective, at that. Never mind, the actual 2037.75 objective was touched at the overnight low. But like the intraday recovery to fresh highs, new buyers haven’t been attracted, as price action ranges sideways.
If, then…
That which doesn’t kill the market, puts it on life support? The market is at risk of a downturn for a host of reasons, many of which I elaborated on yesterday here. One of those reasons is on display overnight in the inability to attract buyers. Sellers have yet to exploit their opposition’s weakness, and in their own hesitation is essentially the only bullish argument — nature abhors a vacuum, and if sellers aren’t attracted to the situation soon, then buyers will be sucked into producing another upside surge.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2048.25 would be likely to trigger the 2045.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2037.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.