Posts by Rod David
The Universe, week of March 21, 2016…
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Oops, they did it again. Last week, the percentage of stocks above their 4-week moving averages rose sharply to 17%. Also last week, a news event finally justified the paradigm shift.
GWPH doubled on positive results for its children’s seizure application. The stock immediately began pulling back into the week — ending the week at support that I noted during the Livestox session. That was a complete surprising, having trended down until the end. Stocks like ARNA, CNAB, ENDO, EXMT and RMHB at least seem to be telegraphing potential recoveries.
Can the freight train keep huffing down the tracks? I’m not seeing any signs that say differently, as we approach April 4’s two-year anniversary of the sector top. Just keep in mind the freight train has many cars, and that it’s not actually a train whose cars all move in the same direction together. Take a look at CANV which had doubled, but later plunged, to see what can happen.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for March 21, 2016 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 17 | 21.79% |
| trends* | # flat: | 33 | 42.31% |
| # down: | 28 | 35.90% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| AERO | 1.500 | 1.500 | flat |
| AGTK | 0.004 | 0.007 | flat |
| AMMJ | 0.085 | 0.160 | flat |
| ARNA | 1.520 | 1.970 | flat |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | flat |
| BLOZF | 0.160 | 0.220 | up |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.030 | flat |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.031 | flat |
| BTFL | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| CANL | 0.053 | 0.290 | flat |
| CANN | 0.350 | 0.550 | down |
| CANV | 0.290 | 0.550 | flat |
| CARA | 2.750 | 5.900 | down |
| CBDS | 1.130 | 2.200 | up |
| CBIS | 0.005 | 0.017 | down |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.150 | 0.330 | flat |
| DEWM | 0.002 | 0.004 | up |
| DIGP | 0.120 | 0.220 | down |
| EAPH | 0.004 | 0.009 | up |
| EDXC | 0.017 | 0.032 | up |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | flat |
| ENDO | 0.010 | 0.017 | up |
| ENRT | 0.005 | 0.014 | flat |
| ERBB | 0.001 | 0.003 | flat |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | down |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | up |
| FITX | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| FULL | 2.050 | 2.520 | flat |
| GBLX | 0.175 | 0.280 | flat |
| GRNH | 0.009 | 0.029 | down |
| GWPH | 71.500 | 87.000 | up |
| HEMP | 0.036 | 0.070 | flat |
| IMLFF | 0.040 | 0.115 | flat |
| INSY | 14.950 | 21.250 | down |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | flat |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | down |
| LXRP | 0.100 | 0.220 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.029 | 0.052 | up |
| MDBX | 0.006 | 0.051 | down |
| MDRM | 0.040 | 0.108 | up |
| MINE | 0.019 | 0.040 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | flat |
| MJNA | 0.028 | 0.044 | down |
| MNTR | 0.320 | 0.550 | up |
| MSRT | 0.830 | 1.410 | flat |
| MYEC | 0.008 | 0.012 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | up |
| NMUS | 0.450 | 1.070 | flat |
| NTRR | 1.120 | 1.800 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.435 | 0.630 | flat |
| OXIS | 0.200 | 1.640 | down |
| PHOT | 0.020 | 0.040 | flat |
| PLPL | 0.063 | 0.108 | flat |
| PMCB | 0.043 | 0.074 | down |
| PNTV | 0.002 | 0.004 | up |
| PZOO | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RMHB | 0.028 | 0.051 | flat |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.006 | 0.014 | flat |
| SPRWF | 0.225 | 0.375 | up |
| SRNA | 0.052 | 0.087 | down |
| STEV | 0.015 | 0.037 | down |
| TAUG | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| TRTC | 0.163 | 0.257 | up |
| TURV | 0.463 | 0.770 | flat |
| TWMJF | 1.800 | 2.400 | up |
| UPOT | 0.010 | 0.050 | down |
| VAPE | 0.003 | 0.023 | flat |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.020 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.025 | 0.048 | up |
| VPCO | 0.000 | 0.095 | down |
| WOGI | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XXII | 0.800 | 1.010 | down |
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2051.00 | 2041.50 |
| …would target | 2057.75 | 2048.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2040.25 | 2030.75 |
| …would target | 2033.75 | 2024.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday afternoon’s drop was recovered entirely, and literally — from the noon hour’s 2040.00 exit down to a test of the afternoon’s 2033.50 bias-down signal, and back up again. even the noon hour’s 2041.75 high was touched.
No higher highs were required since the bias environment wasn’t exited above all prior timing windows. Even considering the bullish WedEX, and even considering that the bullish WedEX had been productive. So the balance of the session ranged narrowly around 2040.00 — expiration dipping to 2036.50 is irrelevant for our purpsoses.
The new trend high close fulfills the third higher close that was by confirming Wednesday’s breakout. The new trend high close on a Friday now deserves a similar reward, that at least one more higher close develop before a durable decline could begin. An immediate pullback, possibly, but not a durable reversal down.
Meanwhile, the bullish WedEX’s influence on Monday should be aggressive. Its influence proved out Friday afternoon, so even if Monday’s open were to gap down considerably, the morning should rally. Rallying to fresh highs without gapping up would be vulnerable to reversing down, since buyers didn’t gain traction for their efforts — and since some older “higher prior lows” are being probed that should get to slow the advance.
REMINDER: THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND.
Also, chaRTroom will be available after Sunday night’s Globex open. Not very long after, and you’ll receive the usual Email Alert with its URL.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Pre-close View… Into the weekend meekly?
Noon hour’s pullback absorbed, but not reversed.
The morning’s 2039.75 bias-up target wasn’t exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal. It was probed anyway up to 2042.75. But the bias environment was exited back at 2039.75. And the noon hour fluctuated around it. Buyers weren’t gaining any traction for their effort.
Some sort of dip remained likely before the bullish WedEX could be influential. Dropping out of the noon hour from 2040.00 tested the afternoon’s 2033.50 bias-down signal by 2 ticks.
Now the bias environment is beginning to lapse. Already a bounce is testing 2038.00. Not exiting the bias environment above prior highs does impede the ability to extend higher through the close. But nothing inherent to the WedEX suggests it will be invalidated and it’s too late to invert.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s open gapped down to test Thursday’s 1.1305 opening low, and then consolidated there through the morning. The confirmed breakout suggests that an even deeper pullback would recover to fresh highs, potentially from 1.1195.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Not extending the gap up above 1260.70 intraday Thursday made the level a pullback limit to maintain the potential for retesting 1288.00. Trending down overnight greeted Friday testing the 1250.20 sell signal. Recovering it to close back above 1260.70 is all but required, but under 1250.20 would target 1216.50-1223.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Despite extending higher to 16.12 briefly overnight, Thursday’s gap up to 15.70 was attacked Friday morning to within a nickel. Closing under 15.70 would target 15.25 and then fresh lows down to 14.90.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing higher overnight and gapping up Friday above 162-07 gave Thursday’s buy signal a chance to confirm. But not extending any higher intraday only undermined Thursday’s gap up further, beyond suspicions earned already by having failed to extend higher Thursday. Even the most bullish scenario probably can’t avoid first probing fresh lows down to 160-28.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up above the 40.35-40.40 target and extending to 41.20 didn’t prevent reversing down sharply intraday to test 39.70. Closing any lower would already start sealing a top But the gap back up to Friday’s open 40.70-41.00 will need to be filled eventually. And filling it before reversing down would form a more substantial top.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh highs overnight up to 1.96 were already retraced before Friday’s open, but the 1.99 target remains in-play.