Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2051.00 | 2041.50 |
| …would target | 2057.75 | 2048.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2043.75 | 2034.50 |
| …would target | 2036.50 | 2027.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, INVALIDATED ABOVE BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Ex-WedEX?
Only opening action briefly displays upward aggression.
The overnight gyration was duplicated on a smaller scale by a post-open surge. The 2036.00 open had extended up to within 1 tick of this morning’s 2041.50 bias-up signal. It hasn’t been straight down from there, but it has been only down.
A pullback to 2036.50 was anticipated, but it extended back to the 2033.50 pre-open low. And triggering no-bias after testing the bias-up signal has put into play an offsetting test of the bias-down signal — which would be effectively a retest of the 2031.00 overnight lows.
Is the bullish WedEX dead if a target is in-play below?A bounce from 2033.50 prevented extending deeper than the first 3 minutes under the sell signal. Back under 2034.50 would resume the decline. Otherwise, back above 2037.00 could try the bullish WedEX again.
Pre-market Tour (only summary / no recording)
Unrelated to the bandwidth issue that is now resolved, the recording facility did not engage for this morning’s pre-market Tour.
The discussion began by noting that Friday’s session was unremarkable to the naked, mainstream eye. We know of the new high close on a Friday that entrenches the rally by committing it to at least one eventual higher close. But we also know that need not be produced today.
We also know of the bullish WedEX influence on Friday afternoon’s recovery. Regardless of where today opens or exits the open, the balance of the morning should rally aggressively. This WedEX setup is being threatened by the pre-open slide back down into negative territory, so that will be our initial focus.
Elsewhere, the long bond is confirming my suspicions that Thursday and Friday’s strength was weak-handed and that new lows are required to finish forming a bottom. Gold is confirming its break under 1262.00 to 1250.20 support is not bullish. Crude Oil is trying to recover from overnight weakness, but probably only to retest Friday’s opening gap at 42.00-42.30 (basis May). And Natural Gas is gapping down, but not under a prior low so the 1.99 target remains intact.
The First Trade… There’s both a will, AND a way.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s quadruple witch expiration barely gapped up to Thursday’s highs, barely probed Thursday’s highs, and barely held onto Thursday’s highs. But Thursday’s highs weren’t rejected. That defined the balance of the session, which ranged choppily at or above Thursday’s highs. The noon hour’s reaction down from fresh highs was recovered during the afternoon’s bullish WedEX, and the new trend high close on a Friday further entrenched the rally. But buyers gained no traction for the effort.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open was at the 2036.50-2037.50 low of Friday’s post-close dip. Soon, sliding had extended under Friday’s lows to withing 1 tick of this morning’s 2030.75 bias-down signal’s support. Bouncing into Europe’s opens was retraced to retest the low, forming a bottom. A very influential bottom, which launched a steep two-hour rally that probed Friday’s high up to 2044.25. That has reacted down to test the opening range as support 2037.25.
If, then…
Friday left us with a lot of moving parts. They all seem to be moving higher. At least, for Monday morning, with the bullish WedEX likely to influence price action aggressively. The overnight reversal from its initial weakness does suggest what to expect post-open, so long as the reversal isn’t rejected. Similarly, already largely retracing the large recovery suggests that a post-open rally can fade into the noon hour, assuming that it does develop. While the new trend high close on Friday did entrench the rally for at least another new trend high close, it does not require that higher close to be produced today.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2043.00 would be likely to trigger the 2041.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2039.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
SPECIAL NOTE: Wednesday’s bandwidth issue has returned — in a BIG way. It was resolved before our Market Tour last week. I’m not confident about this morning (upload speed has ranged sporadically from a respectable 4.95 down to a horrific 0.10). We’ll test it shortly before the Tour, and might switch to an alternative, which still wouldn’t be optimal.
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom by CLICKING HERE.
I’ll be checking in later, and will annotate the chart if anything interesting develops.