Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2044.00 | 2034.50 |
| …would target | 2049.00 | 2039.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2036.25 | 2027.00 |
| …would target | 2021.00 | 2020.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s rally contradicted the lack of traction gained by Wednesday’s buyers. It doesn’t change whether they gained traction — the overnight slide was appropriate. But fresh highs produced before the last hour would normally fail. That’s not unfinished business below — it is a reflection of underlying strength.
Thursday’s second consecutive higher close following Wednesday’s breakout from a multi-session range is also a reflection of strength. The confirmation now requires an eventual third higher close. Not necessarily on Friday, but a new trend high close on Friday would entrench the uptrend by creating a new requirement for another eventual new high close. The bullish WedEX stands ready to assist, so long as the morning isn’t too weak to climb all the way out of.
Unfinished business below at 2027.00-2028.50 must still neutralize Thursday afternoon’s “no-bias trending.” Unfinished business above at the 2036.75 high’s overbought RSIs must be neutralized, too. Stopping pessimistically short of the latter late Thursday suggests it will be exceeded more substantially, presumably after neutralizing the former.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Overdone?
No-bias rally is borrowing a lot from tomorrow.
Trading 2027.00 at 1:20 failed to trigger the 2028.50 bias-up signal, despite the noon hour having probed it up to 2031.00. Never mind that, fresh highs attacked 2037.00.
That’s “no-bias trending” and it requires being retraced to 2028.50 if not also to 2027.00 or lower. But not in any particular time frame. Overbought RSIs at the high require its retest, potentially up to 2038.00.
Buyers didn’t gain traction yesterday, so resuming the rally today was unlikely before the final hour. It will be interesting if that remains influential, because it would also prevent a higher close from confirming yesterday’s breakout.
It does look like the high’s retest is underway. Neutralizing its attraction quickly would allow the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window to satisfy the downside attraction, and to prevent confirming the breakout.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday extended the rally to fresh highs, while retesting the prior rally’s highs. Now pullbacks must hold 1.1255 to maintain momentum, and should hold it, since the prior pivotal high has been touched which all but requires fresh highs.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close surge extended higher overnight into Thursday’s test of 1272.00 so that pullback limits could be raised Thursday morning to 1260.70, for maintaining upside potential to retest 1288.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher overnight to test 15.70 Thursday now puts the pattern at a crossroads of either launching a new upleg or else dipping back down to 15.25.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s eerie narrow ranging amid so much volatility was resolved by rallying overnight to gap up Thursday at or above the 162-07 buy signal, which still must be recovered through the close to trigger. Still hovering there through much of the day keeps teh door open to another drop targeting fresh lows at 160-28.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday night’s highs fulfilled expectations to retest the 39.00 high, but gapping up has created potential for that test to visit 40.40. It’s being attacked already, but there’s no room or time for a pullback if the upside remains intact.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength that at least assisted in absorbing the reaction down. Gapping up and reversing down was, in fact, absorbed. And it was resolved to probing fresh highs attacking 1.90.
Mid-day Update…The trend is bucking the trend.
No-bias trending to new highs.
This morning’s 2023.00 bias-up signal held its test into the bias environment lapsing. Probing higher during the noon hour up to to 2031.00 tested the overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” and this afternoon’s 2028.50 bias-up signal. Dipping into the bbias environment’s exit avoided triggering bias up.
Dipping also held a sell signal under 2027.00. And despite not triggering, the 2028.50bias-up signal is being probed. Up to 2033.50, probing this afternoon’s bias-up signal by 1 point.
Being a no-bias environment, this is “no-bias trending” that is doomed to failure. Retesting the 2028.50 bias-up signal as support is required, if not also down to the 2027.00 level being tested when the bias signal triggered at 1:20. Meanwhile, yesterday’s buyers didn’t gain traction for their efforts, which also undermines resuming the rally so quickly.
Extending higher is possible. But a bullish WedEX bias would be difficult without first correcting today’s excess.