Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 18, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: A parade of Fed speakers accompanies quarterly Quadruple Witch expiration, against the backdrop of WedEX, and a couple of high-profile influential econ reports. Oh, and two days of illiquidity are fast-approaching, but, no pressure.
.*Quadruple Witching
*William Dudley Speaks
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
11:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2038.25 | 2028.50 |
| …would target | 2042.00 | 2032.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2027.50 | 2018.00 |
| …would target | 2022.50 | 2012.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Backing and filling time.
No upside rush or downside attraction, allowing time to fluctuate.
The pre-open bounce from 2006.00 had attacked 2018.00, but needed to extend a little further before retracing 61.8% of the overnight slide. Then the bounce was able to peak, and to be retraced, halfway back down to touch 2012.00.
Neither bias signal was touched, so there’s no requirement for an offsetting test of the other bias signal, or to test a bias target. But there’s room to fluctuate between the bias signals.
Bouncing back above 2016.75 (being tested now) could extend to test this morning’s 2023.00 bias-up signal. Back under 2014.25 would target 2011.00 and potentially also the 2008.00 bias-down signal.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The reaction up from 2006.00 has extended up to 2016.00. That’s still not enough to ensure resuming the rally this morning, and it might have created a new attraction to renewed selling.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… A little more, a little less.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
PLEASE NOTE: I’ve been trying to resolve bandwidth issues that began overnight, so please accept my apologies if chaRTroom and recordings are not clear. Thank you.
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s FOMC statement was greeted soon after a noon hour sell signal’s sell signal under 2006.00 had met its 2001.50 target. The satisfied selling pressure cleared the path to a bullish reaction that tested targets at 2018.25 and 2022.25. A last-minute sell signal triggered under 2019.00 and its 2016.00 target was met at the close. WedEX triggered an active bullish signal. The session was a breakout, being the first fresh high close above a multi-session range. However, buyers did not gain traction for their efforts.
Overnight action’s new info…
Fresh highs were soon probed up to 2026.00. A pullback to 2019.00 was recovered to 2026.75 into Europe’s opens. Consolidating there eventually resolved down. And down. Way down, testing 2006.00 as support. Its reaction is currently testing 2012.00. The overnight high is a “new Globex trend extreme.”
If, then…
Gapping up is the only credible path to immediately resuming the rally. That seems unlikely, given the overnight slide’s recent momentum. The requirement to retest the overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” might help attract price higher intraday, but not necessarily at the open. Leaving the upside attraction outstanding would help WedEX produce its bullish bias Friday afternoon. If not for the new Globex trend extreme, gapping down under 2006.00 would have suggested yesterday’s high was an anomaly. Gapping down under 2006.00 would still be more vulnerable to extending down this morning. But invalidating or even inverting yesterday’s bullish signals will require rejecting all of yesterday afternoon’s rally, back through its 2000.00-2001.50 origin.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2006.00 would be likely to trigger the 2008.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1999.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2001.50 bias-down target and renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2012.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.