Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2033.00 | 2023.00 |
| …would target | 2038.25 | 2028.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2017.75 | 2008.00 |
| …would target | 2011.50 | 2001.50 |
| Signal status: NO BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
WedEX triggered actively bullish thanks to a single session, not two, which leaves it vulnerable to rejection at Thursday’s open. Gapping down under 2006.00 would suggest that Wednesday’s new high close was an anomaly.
Not gapping down would avoid invaliding the bullish WedEX, but a second consecutive higher close would help to confirm it. It would also confirm Wednesday’s breakout, the first fresh high close from a multi-session range.
Gapping up would be more helpful, yet, since Wednesday afternoon’s buyers didn’t gain traction for their efforts. So, gapping up is the only credible path to immediately extending the rally.
Each of the setups is vulnerable to non-confirmation, invalidation or inversion. But that’s probably not too much of a risk if Wednesday’s rally is maintained through Thursday’s open.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Slopping pattern.
FOMC reaction has legs.
The noon hour’s pullback had tested and held its 2001.50 target, which also happened to be this afternoon’s bias-down signal. It didn’t trigger, and the FOMC policy statement triggered a surge attacking 2017.00. A couple of higher highs later and 2022.25 is being attacked, too.
Any higher would target 2028.50. But it’s getting late, and buyers aren’t gaining traction for this effort — a lot of effort. The bias environment’s exit above the noon hour’s high wasn’t confirmed either by the final hour’s entry or the 3:10-3:20 timing window. And having been a noN-bias environment, the rally doesn’t require being retraced.
Still, fresh highs above 2022.25 would target 2028.50. Just avoid closing back under 2012.00 to form an “actively bullish WedEX” setup. Closing back under 2009.00 would form a “passively bearish WedEX.”
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Testing 1.1105 into Wednesday’s FOMC statement launched a surge to fresh highs above 1.2230 attacking 1.2275. Even the most bearish pattern is unlikely to reverse down immediately, but back under 1.1170 would start forming a Double Top.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite only hovering optimistically above Sunday night’s 1226.00 low, the reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC statement surged sharply through the 1243.00 bounce limit to test 1260.70 resistance by $2. All of which developed post-close, but a retest of 1288.00 is likely so long as 1250.20 holds as support.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Holding the 15.25 pullback limit enabled a favorable reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC statement. Attacking 15.70 after the close now needs to recover 15.70 through Thursday’s close to even suggest a bigger rally underway.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s reaction to the FOMC statement was surprisingly muted, as price ranged narrowly around the gap back to Friday’s 161-16 close that was filled already Tuesday.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s tepid break under the 36.95 sell signal was recovered Wednesday to confirm that a retest of the 39.00 high remains likelier to form a more substantial top, although resistance is already in-play upon filling the gap back to Friday’s 38.60 close.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Flat, narrow ranging Wednesday is greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength, having rallied with restrained optimism and still targeting 1.99.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 17, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s BOE policy statement doesn’t usually influence price action, but it has a better chance on the day following the FOMC’s statement. Philly Fed is the only regional survey with a track record for influencing price action. I can’t find another JOLTS release later than the week following the Employment Situation report, which could give it more impact if surprising. It’s being released simultaneously with the already influential LEI. That’s a lot for the market to dodge.
*BOE Policy statement
7:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET