Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2019.50 | 2009.50 |
| …would target | 2025.50 | 2015.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2011.25 | 2001.50 |
| …would target | 2005.50 | 1995.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Next steps…
The Investment Policy Committee is gearing up.
Recently you received an email from the IPCstocks.com “WordPress” web site, containing a link to re-set your password. Please let me know whether you need to know your username.
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Rod
Post-open Review… The range reigns.
Pre-open dip retraces to unchanged.
Sliding down to 1997.00 had recovered to greet the open at 2000.25, which is 3 ticks above the 1999.50 bias-down signal. Trending straight up from there touched 2008.75, which is 3 ticks short of the 2009.50 bias-up signal.
Neither bias signal was touched before 10:15 failed to trigger either, so an offsetting test of the other signal is not in-play. Coming within 3 ticks can neutralize the attraction, anyway.
So, having produced and retraced two convincing trending attempts since yesterday’s “equilibrium” close, the morning range may be set.
Overbought RSIs at the high suggest its eventual retest, and potential trending attempt to fresh highs triggered above 2008.00. Meanwhile, back under 2004.75 would signal momentum reversing back down, presumably to retest the open.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Consolidating between 2006.00-2009.50 began slipping at its lower-end instead of bouncing again. Then the slipping began sliding, and suddenly 1997.00 has been touched. That’s probably the next convincing trending attempt off of yesterday’s equilibrium close. Recovering 2002.00-2003.00 through the open or not recovering it should be the difference between holding this morning’s 1999.50 bias-down signal, or triggering it.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Holding up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open gapped down to attack Friday’s 1996.00 lows, which held. But it wasn’t much of a test, so the rubber band wasn’t stretched enough for a snap back up. But the balance of the session did trend up to 2007.00, retracing 61.8% of the gap down. All but one timing window printing a higher high.
Overnight action’s new info…
The reward for holding a test of Friday’s low was to fill the gap back to Monday’s 2009.50 close, if not also to probe Monday’s 2015.00 high. Tuesday’s rally extended to 2009.50, where a surge attacked 2012.00. Reactions down under 2006.00 recovered to retest 2009.50, which have reacted down again to 2006.00.
If, then…
Holding a 61.8% retracement is often “equilibrium.” Trending attempts are likely in one direction, and then in the other, each being very convincing before reversing again. Late-afternoon tends to allow a more successful attempt. That template happens to align well with this afternoon’s FOMC events, with the policy statement being followed by Yellen’s quarterly Q&A.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2012.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2009.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2006.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.