Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2019.50 | 2009.50 |
| …would target | 2025.75 | 2015.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2009.50 | 1999.50 |
| …would target | 2003.50 | 1993.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The day began at the edge of the precipice, gapping down to critical support at Friday’s low. Extending deeper would have launched a much deeper downleg. Avoiding that would squeeze the trapped shorts to probe the drop’s origin.
At least, avoiding a post-open drop should have recovered. Perhaps because Tuesday’s open barely touched Friday’s low, instead of probing it, Tuesday’s session only bounced. It wasn’t actually a bounce. The intraday series of higher highs and higher lows qualified as a trend. And it wasn’t random noise. Only one timing window didn’t participate (the noon hour).
A 61.8% retracement of the open’s drop had defined the afternoon’s high, recovered only by surging into the close. That’s essentially “equilibrium.” It suggests a very wide-ranging session Wednesday without trending until late-afternoon. The stage is set for Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC policy statement and Chairman Yellen’s quarterly Q&A.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still hovering at 1.1105 Tuesday, instead of breaking lower, keeps alive the likelihood for at least probing a fresh high before reversing down.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Further probing under 1260.70 and 1250.20 extended down to 1228.00 intraday, attacking the 1223.50 and 1216.50 targets which remains in-play so long as bounces now hold any test of 1243.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The reaction from Monday’s false break higher gapped down Tuesday to test the critical 15.25 support whose break would target 14.90 and lower.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying overnight to probe the 162-07 buy signal by 10 ticks was retraced Tuesday morning to fill the gap back down to Monday’s 161-16 close. Filling it wasn’t required, but there is no unfinished business below that might impede another rally effort.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 36.95 sell signal had supported Monday’s gap down, and gapping down under it Tuesday was supported around 36.00. Not trending down intraday keeps the door open to retesting last week’s highs up to 39.00 where a more substantial top can form.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s restrained optimism was resolved by gapping Tuesday to test 1.90. Optimism remained restrained as an intraday dip filled the gap back down to Monday’s 1.84 close.
Mid-day Update… If not for the timing.
Fresh post-open highs are suspicious.
It would seem to be 100% in-line with pre-open expectations. Gapping down through the 1998.50 bias-down target was half the battle. Extending through it or reacting up from it was the other half. And without extending through it, trapped shorts would be squeezed to fuel a recovery.
Bias-down was recovered in time to avoid renewing bias-down. But it was not recovered enough to reverse momentum up. Although sellers aren’t in control, a fresh low at 1993.50 became likely so that its recovery could fuel the recovery.
But no fresh low came before bouncing, first to 2002.75 and then to this morning’s 2004.00 bias-down signal. Now it’s also this afternoon’s bias-up signal.
The bouncing is premature. It’s sponsored by weak hands. It leaves the door open to fresh session lows. Probing above 2004.00 at the bias environment exit could extend anyway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Mar 16, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar is busy. More so, it contains several influential items. And it’s spread out into the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. Best of all, this being a quarterly meeting, Fed Chair Yellen will host Q&A — and her utterings have rivaled Draghi’s for influence price action.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
**FOMC Policy statement
2:00 PM ET
FOMC Forecasts
2:00 PM ET
**Fed Chair Press Conference
2:30 PM ET