Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2024.25 | 2014.25 |
| …would target | 2030.00 | 2020.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2014.00 | 2004.00 |
| …would target | 2008.50 | 1998.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s sloppy, choppy session probed above Friday’s high but didn’t close higher. The breakout is not confirmed. Meanwhile, buyers gained no traction for recovering from the gap down. And the close reacted back down into the range. Tuesday can try the same rejection of Friday’s range that could have been tried Monday. But it would be much less capable of reversing the trend after not quickly rejecting Friday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Defining moment.
Probing fresh highs, with almost no momentum.
Having gapped down in an uptrend, this afternoon’s probe above Friday’s ~2013.00 high creates the basis for a bearish setup. Bearish, if it’s exploited, when the simpler path is to extend higher.
Exploiting the bearish setup would reverse back down to close under this morning’s 2002.00 low. The resulting setup would be a “Pivot Reversal,” which tends to be bearish almost immediately and substantially.
It’s getting late for reversing down. A drop would have to be apparent very soon, if not already. In fact, the last half-hour is being greeted at yet another post-open high at 2015.00.
The prevailing trend always gets a benefit of the doubt. But don’t be too dismissive of a sudden reversal back under 2011.00 during the Position-Squaring window that’s about to open.
Livestox link for 5:30pm ET
Join us after today’s close for an overview of the Cannabis sector (big news today in GWPH), and we’ll take time for several stock chart analysis requests.
I’ll also give instructions to access the new IPCstocks.com web site, and how to view our virtual portfolio at Investfly. This meeting will be recorded and I’ll send out its link tonight before the Bachelor season finale in case you need an excuse.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Sunday night to test Friday’s high was retraced overnight. At least a probe above Thursday’s 1.2200 high remains likely before signaling a reversal down back under 1.1105.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s post-close dip under the 1260.20 pullback limit extended down through Monday morning to test 1243.00. Unless recovered immediately Tuesday back above 1260.20, a deeper pullback targeting the 1217.00 area is likely.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging through Monday’s open to 15.85 was retraced entirely and then reversed into negative territory by noon attacking 12.40. There is no unfinished business above, but still room down to 12.25 before signaling a deeper pullback underway.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night’s fresh lows were still 2 ticks above the 160-28 preference, but Monday reversed into positive territory nonetheless. Closing higher Tuesday would confirm a bottom is in, and above 162-07 would trigger a new upleg.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Trending down Sunday night and Monday morning probed the 37.90 pullback limit and spent the session hovering at the 37.00 sell signal, whose break would begin to suggest a deeper downleg underway..
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s weaker open was recovered to retest Friday’s 1.86 high, but not aggressively which suggests optimism remains well in reserve.