Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Stuck in the middle with glue.
Morning’s chop still hasn’t resolved.
While gapping down helped to reject Friday’s late probe above key resistance, momentum hasn’t reversed down. Wide swings have failed to gain traction.
The morning’s bias environment has lapsed but its range persists. This doesn’t often follow a subdued overnight range. But it does make the first trending attempt out of this morning’s range likely to fail.
The tight range makes price levels less relevant than timing — less relevant but still relevant. Exiting the noon hour above Friday’s 2012.00 cash session close or any probed resistance would be the best opportunity to rally at all. Otherwise, entering the afternoon’s bias environment back under 1-2 probed resistance levels would start signaling a deeper pullback coming.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 15, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is busy. Only PPI has a reliable track record for influencing price action. But several other reports are scheduled for release simultaneously with others, which does make them more capable of surprise.
BOJ Policy statement
TIME UNKNOWN
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2020.50 | 2010.50 |
| …would target | 2026.25 | 2016.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2013.25 | 2003.25 |
| …would target | 2009.75 | 1998.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Digging deeper.
Choppy fluctuation around critical support.
Hovering narrowly around the 2006.00 bias-down signal opened there, and then bounced to attack 2009.00. Reacting down to fresh lows came within 2-3 ticks of the 2001.50 bias-down target.
But bias-down was never signaled. It was overlapped within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period. And it was still being overlapped at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias.
This morning is not bias-down, so the bias-down target isn’t in-play. It’s not no-bias, so an offsetting test of the bias-up signal isn’t in-play.
That said, filling the gap back up to Friday’s 2012.00 close is likely. Potentially also a fresh high testing this morning’s 2013.00 bias-up target.
Back under 2004.00 would start targeting fresh session lows. Otherwise, sellers are likely marginalized.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Ranging flat-to-lower overnight has persisted, attacking 2004.00 but still indicating an open at the 2006.00 bias-down signal. Immediate trending is likely, although still possibly only as a false break.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.