Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… Waiting for a shoe to drop.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up to 1997.00 was maintained through the open, but not extended until the first hour was ending. The late start didn’t prevent extending to new recovery highs attacking 2010.00 during the noon hour, and then 2013.00 into the close. No traction was gained for the effort.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped down under Friday’s noon hour high. Price action since then has essentially ranged flat-to-lower, still supported well above Friday afternoon’s bias environment lows at what is this morning’s 2006.00 bias-down signal.
If, then…
Gapping down Sunday night back to Friday’s noon hour high helps to isolate Friday afternoon’s fresh high. Friday breakouts already are not often confirmed by a higher close Monday. More so, it helps to confirm a new focus on Wednesday’s inflation-sensitive FOMC meeting, and less on last week’s bazooka-toting ECB. Meanwhile, ranging narrowly Sunday night is due more to anxiousness than to calm, and doesn’t often persist intraday.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2004.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2006.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2010.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom by CLICKING HERE.
I’ll be checking in later, and will annotate the chart if anything interesting develops.
The Universe, week of March 14, 2016…
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
This week’s issue is available simultaneously at IPCstocks.com. “IPC” is short for “Investment Policy Committee,” and that’s the new address for my stock service. You’ll receive email overnight that prompts you to choose a password. Investfly.com has added specific order types and functionality so they can partner with us for our virtual portfolio. We’ll discuss this, and more, during Livestox this Monday at 5:30pm ET. See you there!
Last week’s discussion about the sector’s recent improvements had noted the timing for it to become more serious. And it did. The percentage of stocks above their 4-week moving averages had crept into double-digits. This week’s tally exploded to its best levels yet. Less noticeable is the shrinking percentage of stocks under their short-term moving averages.
Among the newer “up” stocks is BLOZF, BLPG, CANV and even EDXC. As a reminder that nothing rises in a straight line or forever, an earlier new up stock — AGTK — was reversed to “down.” A couple of potential improvements for next week are ENDO and ENRT.
While the improvements seem too consistent to be very temporary, there’s no assurance of broadening across the majority of the sector. But I do expect much wider participation to follow sooner, rather than later.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for March 14, 2016 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 14 | 17.07% |
| trends* | # flat: | 28 | 34.15% |
| # down: | 40 | 48.78% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| AERO | 1.500 | 1.500 | flat |
| AGTK | 0.004 | 0.007 | flat |
| AMMJ | 0.085 | 0.160 | flat |
| ARNA | 0.950 | 1.650 | down |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | flat |
| BLOZF | 0.160 | 0.220 | up |
| BLPG | 0.032 | 0.053 | up |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.031 | flat |
| BTFL | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| CANL | 0.053 | 0.290 | flat |
| CANN | 0.350 | 0.550 | down |
| CANV | 0.290 | 0.550 | up |
| CARA | 2.750 | 5.900 | down |
| CBDS | 0.070 | 0.600 | down |
| CBIS | 0.005 | 0.017 | down |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.150 | 0.330 | down |
| DEWM | 0.002 | 0.004 | up |
| DIGP | 0.120 | 0.220 | down |
| EAPH | 0.004 | 0.009 | flat |
| EDXC | 0.017 | 0.032 | up |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | flat |
| ENDO | 0.005 | 0.009 | flat |
| ENRT | 0.005 | 0.014 | down |
| ERBB | 0.001 | 0.003 | flat |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | down |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | flat |
| FITX | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| FULL | 2.050 | 2.520 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.175 | 0.280 | flat |
| GRNH | 0.009 | 0.029 | down |
| GWPH | 37.750 | 47.100 | down |
| HEMP | 0.010 | 0.040 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | flat |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.040 | 0.115 | flat |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| INSY | 14.950 | 21.250 | down |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | flat |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | flat |
| LXRP | 0.100 | 0.220 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.029 | 0.052 | up |
| MDBX | 0.006 | 0.051 | down |
| MDRM | 0.040 | 0.108 | up |
| MINE | 0.019 | 0.040 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | flat |
| MJNA | 0.028 | 0.044 | down |
| MNTR | 0.320 | 0.550 | up |
| MSRT | 0.830 | 1.410 | down |
| MYEC | 0.008 | 0.012 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | down |
| NMUS | 0.450 | 1.070 | flat |
| NTRR | 1.120 | 1.800 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.435 | 0.630 | flat |
| OXIS | 0.470 | 1.230 | down |
| PHOT | 0.020 | 0.040 | up |
| PLPL | 0.063 | 0.108 | flat |
| PMCB | 0.043 | 0.074 | down |
| PNTV | 0.002 | 0.004 | up |
| PZOO | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RMHB | 0.028 | 0.051 | flat |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.006 | 0.014 | up |
| SPRWF | 0.225 | 0.375 | up |
| SRNA | 0.052 | 0.087 | down |
| STEV | 0.015 | 0.037 | down |
| TAUG | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| TRTC | 0.115 | 0.160 | up |
| TURV | 0.463 | 0.770 | flat |
| TWMJF | 1.800 | 2.400 | up |
| UPOT | 0.010 | 0.050 | down |
| VAPE | 0.003 | 0.023 | flat |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.020 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.025 | 0.048 | down |
| VPCO | 0.000 | 0.095 | down |
| WOGI | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XXII | 0.800 | 1.010 | down |
Saturday Review’s recording (for 3/12/16) …
The topping template defined all of last week’s actions… except for Friday, which killed it. But Fridays are the least relevant windows of the week, so perhaps the template is only mostly dead. Why is there still reason to suspect the rally’s health, and how would Monday open’s either confirm or reject it? These questions and many others are addressed in this weekend’s Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
FB, XOM, KO, OIH, NFLX, AMZN, DWTI
03/12/2016 09:31:28 Mark Glezer: gm
03/12/2016 09:31:34 Mark Glezer: good
03/12/2016 09:31:37 casjf: GM
03/12/2016 09:47:27 Mark Glezer: under 2002 – SLD?
03/12/2016 09:49:00 Rod David: 2007 2003
03/12/2016 09:49:04 Mark Glezer: k
03/12/2016 09:52:46 Mark Glezer: sorry I thought it was under 2002 – the afternoon’s low, not the last 90 min low
03/12/2016 09:54:15 Mark Glezer: sure
03/12/2016 10:00:04 Josey: sound’s like a greater chance for a capitulation on the horizon (ECB)
03/12/2016 10:05:15 David B: Do we sill need to still see one more higher close before a down trend occurr?
03/12/2016 10:06:30 Mark Glezer: FWIW some hedge fund guys are contemplating new highs followed by a an ultimate collapse sometime in April
03/12/2016 10:09:59 Mark Glezer: right
03/12/2016 10:10:34 Mark Glezer: so it’s under 2003, not 2007 – just making sure
03/12/2016 10:13:36 David B: does the fed meeting and options expiration complicate things?
03/12/2016 10:14:01 Mark Glezer: gapping down should not get far down anyway since one higher close is required?
03/12/2016 10:14:48 Mark Glezer: unless it’s under 1995 & maintained
03/12/2016 10:16:57 David B: does the direction of oil either way having an influence?
03/12/2016 10:17:05 Mark Glezer: k
03/12/2016 10:18:32 David B: is your view that this is still a bear market rally even if we get to new highs?
03/12/2016 10:19:32 Mark Glezer: looks like they still correlate by the moving averages that keep increasing
03/12/2016 10:20:03 Mark Glezer: ES & oil
03/12/2016 10:20:34 Mark Glezer: k
03/12/2016 10:21:14 David B: is big money just waiting for everybody to be in before a large downward move?
03/12/2016 10:21:31 Josey: I would think that oil will still go down, China, Iran, supply, demand. The OPEC agreement will not last. IMO
03/12/2016 10:22:04 Mark Glezer: hedge funds are waiting for sure
03/12/2016 10:22:35 David B: do you think the rally has been short covering?
03/12/2016 10:24:55 builder from Oregon: FB
03/12/2016 10:25:06 David B: XOM,KO
03/12/2016 10:33:00 David B: 43.60 below would indicate trending down? on KO
03/12/2016 10:33:58 builder from Oregon: OIH
03/12/2016 10:34:56 David B: NFLX,AMZN
03/12/2016 10:35:30 Josey: screen frozen 10:33
03/12/2016 10:35:38 Josey: anyone else
03/12/2016 10:35:44 Bill G: No chart
03/12/2016 10:35:46 builder from Oregon: yes
03/12/2016 10:35:46 sm: yes
03/12/2016 10:36:09 builder from Oregon: KO frozen
03/12/2016 10:37:07 Josey: good
03/12/2016 10:37:07 sm: good
03/12/2016 10:37:08 David B: yes
03/12/2016 10:37:08 Bill G: y
03/12/2016 10:37:10 builder from Oregon: yes
03/12/2016 10:43:05 Josey: Another etf, DWTI ?
03/12/2016 10:48:46 Josey: volume declining also
03/12/2016 10:50:20 Mark Glezer: thx much
03/12/2016 10:50:26 Josey: Ty
03/12/2016 10:50:27 sm: Good work on the big picture analysis. Thanks.
03/12/2016 10:50:40 Mark Glezer: amazing as always
03/12/2016 10:50:40 David B: thanks
03/12/2016 10:51:03 Bill G: Have a good one
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2022.25 | 2013.00 |
| …would target | 2027.00 | 2017.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2015.25 | 2006.00 |
| …would target | 2010.75 | 2001.50 |
| Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.