Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us at either link below by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review.
We’ll discuss the bigger picture, and then review any stock charts that you request.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The topping template is dead. Long live the topping template.
We began tracking the template last Saturday. For four consecutive sessions, the market didn’t do anything not allowed by the template. Last Friday’s relative high close made specific requirements for Monday, which were fulfilled. But rejected surges weren’t converted into a mid-week collapse, opening the door to fresh highs.
This Friday’s fresh highs end the topping template. That topping template. But Friday’s close was also a breakout, so a new topping template would begin tracking if Monday doesn’t confirm it. And Monday’s don’t often confirm Friday breakouts.
Meanwhile, the bigger picture is threatening new highs. The highest calculable corrective bounce limit was tested last Friday. Confirming this Friday’s close above it would put into play new highs. Not confirming it would maintain the rally is a correction, and vulnerable to reversing down sharply… We’ll review it all in detail at the Saturday Review.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 1.1105 pullback target was tested already overnight before Friday’s gap down. The pullback target held, making at least the gap back up to Thursday’s close likely to be filled before a durable reversal can begin.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight blip-up came within 20 cents of touching the 1277.50-1288.00 target area’s upper-end. The reaction down greeted Friday’s open in negative territory. While the overnight test does neutralize the attraction, it is vulnerable to being retested intraday so long as the new 1260.70 pullback limit holds, and otherwise ready to begin a deeper pullback.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging momentarily overnight held a retest of the 15.70 target before gappnig down at Friday’s open was unable to recover positive territory, and back under 15.25 would reverw he trend down.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s recovery back above 162-07 improved Friday morning to a couple of ticks short of the 162-29 buy signal before reversing down sharply to fresh lows. Recovering from a test of 160-28 would be credible for forming a durable bottom.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The Ascending Triangle probed fresh highs above 39.00 Friday, largely recovering from a dip to 38.10. The pullback limit has been raised to 37.85.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Hesitating to test the 1.80 confirmation Thursday resolved up immediately Friday to test 1.86. Friday’s close confirms momentum has reversed up, next targeting 1.99.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 14, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Much like much of the prior week’s thin calendar, Monday’s calendar is empty with no econ reports scheduled. Things do change as the FOMC meeting begins later.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Mid-day Update… Unstuck, but still stuck.
Late extension probes higher, on weak sponsorship.
Gapping up to 1997.00-1999.50 wasn’t threatened through the first half of the fist 15 minutes of volatility, making fresh highs likely. Fresh highs weren’t probed much beyond 2001.00 during the first 15 or 30 minutes, making a pullback likely to refuel buyers for fresh highs at 2004.25-2005.00.
Dipping to 1996.00 stretched the rubber band enough. Snapping back up probed new recovery highs up to 2005.25. Its reaction down barely touched the open’s range before extending higher to 2008.00. Hovering there before the bias environment exit has persisted into the noon hour’s entry, now piercing fresh highs at 2009.00.
Friday morning bias can persist through the noon hour, possibly extending although not necessarily, at least preventing a durable reversal. But the timing origin of finally breaking higher does keep the afternoon vulnerable to reversing back down.