Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2018.75 | 2009.25 |
| …would target | 2023.75 | 2014.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2011.75 | 2002.50 |
| …would target | 2005.25 | 1995.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Stuck.
Gap up is neither rejected nor extended.
The 2002.25 overnight high was formed coming out of Europe’s opens. It hasn’t been rejected. Ranging back down to 1995.00 persisted into the open. It persisted through the open, too.
Actually, post-open ranging narrowed to 1996.00-2001.50. Dry cleaners morning?
Bears are undermined by not quickly rejecting the gap up to a prior extreme. By also not quickly extending the gap up, a momentary detour down becomes likely so the momentum of its recovery can boost the rally. As that detour down delays recovery, the eventual rally boost becomes less likely, or likely to be brief.
Nothing requires extending higher, not today or ever. But the ongoing consolidation is forming congestion which is likely to be retested by a failed trending attempt.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Narrow ranging around yesterday’s pre-open high has continued holding 1995.00 as support. The opening 15 minutes of volatility should be predictive of the balance of the morning, if not also of the day.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Try, try (try, try, try and try) again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Despite surging in reaction to the ECB policy statement, Thursday morning was spent in decline.Its drop had originated during a bias-up environment, so its 1981.75 bias-up signal required an eventual recovery. An interim drop tested the 1960.00 bias-down target to 1958.00. But the afternoon bias environment rallied into the position-squaring window until piercing 1981.75 by 2 ticks. No traction was gained for the effort.
Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday afternoon’s recovery has extended. The open’s 1995.50 high was attacked by midnight, and the 2001.00 pre-open high was probed up to 2002.25 soon after Europe’s opens. A pullback to 1995.00 has recovered.
If, then…
One thing favors extending the rally: Gapping up is the appropriate way to immediately resume it when no traction had been gained for the effort. This being a Friday when trend reversals have a brief window of opportunity, extending the rally can become likelier if the gap up is extended through yesterday’s pre-open high. That’s difficult since a prior extreme can be more resistant to a gap than to trending. And trending relentlessly overnight is easier to reverse intraday. Holding the prior high’s test through the open would become attracted to filling the gap at yesterday’s close under 1980.00, which could extend easily into negative territory with so much room having been carved out by the prior three sessions. So, today’s direction should be determined by whether the session’s first several minutes can attract new buying sponsorship in this area where it has repeatedly found sellers.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1993.50 would be likely to exceed the 1991.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 1989.25 would be unlikely to renew the bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1995.50 | 1985.00 |
| …would target | 2002.00 | 1991.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1981.75 | 1971.25 |
| …would target | 1974.75 | 1964.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.